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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 2016 2015 2014 Yrs Career Needed
1 Madison Bumgarner SFG SP 26 14.8% 16.5 15 18 18 7.9 100 200
2 Rick Porcello BOS SP 27 14.1% 16.5 22 9 15 7.5 107 193
3 Clayton Kershaw LAD SP 28 9.9% 14.8 12 16 21 7.0 126 174
4 Felix Hernandez SEA SP 30 6.2% 14.0 11 18 15 5.9 154 146
5 David Price BOS SP 30 2.2% 17.0 17 18 15 5.5 121 179
6 Chris Sale CHW SP 27 0.2% 14.8 17 13 12 7.6 74 226
7 Bartolo Colon NYM SP 43 0.0% 14.7 15 14 15 1.5 233 67
8 CC Sabathia NYY SP 35 0.0% 7.0 9 6 3 2.4 223 77
9 John Lackey CHC SP 37 0.0% 12.2 11 13 14 1.5 176 124
10 Justin Verlander DET SP 33 0.0% 12.2 16 5 15 4.0 173 127
11 Zack Greinke ARI SP 32 0.0% 15.7 13 19 17 4.4 155 145
12 Jake Peavy SFG SP 35 0.0% 6.3 5 8 7 2.9 152 148
13 Jered Weaver LAA SP 33 0.0% 11.3 12 7 18 3.8 150 150
14 Kyle Lohse TEX SP 37 0.0% 3.8 0 5 13 1.5 147 153
15 Jon Lester CHC SP 32 0.0% 15.8 19 11 16 4.5 146 154
16 Cole Hamels TEX SP 32 0.0% 13.3 15 13 9 4.5 136 164
17 Adam Wainwright STL SP 34 0.0% 10.5 13 2 20 3.1 134 166
18 Ervin Santana MIN SP 33 0.0% 8.2 7 7 14 3.9 133 167
19 James Shields SDP/CHW SP 34 0.0% 9.7 6 13 14 3.3 133 167
20 Max Scherzer WAS SP 31 0.0% 17.7 20 14 18 4.8 125 175
21 Johnny Cueto SFG SP 30 0.0% 16.0 18 11 20 5.8 114 186
22 R. A. Dickey TOR SP 41 0.0% 11.0 10 11 14 1.5 110 190
23 Tim Lincecum LAA SP 32 0.0% 5.3 2 7 12 4.8 110 190
24 Yovani Gallardo BAL SP 30 0.0% 8.7 6 13 8 5.8 108 192
25 Ubaldo Jimenez BAL SP 32 0.0% 9.0 8 12 6 4.5 108 192
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