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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 2015 2014 2013 Yrs Career Needed
1 Clayton Kershaw LAD SP 27 22.5% 17.7 16 21 16 7.6 114 186
2 Madison Bumgarner SFG SP 25 17.5% 17.2 18 18 13 8.5 85 215
3 Felix Hernandez SEA SP 29 15.9% 16.0 18 15 12 6.5 143 157
4 Zack Greinke LAD SP 31 5.7% 17.7 19 17 15 5.0 142 158
5 Gerrit Cole PIT SP 24 2.0% 14.8 19 11 10 9.1 40 260
6 Tim Hudson SFG SP 39 0.0% 8.3 8 9 8 1.5 222 78
7 Bartolo Colon NYM SP 42 0.0% 15.0 14 15 18 1.5 218 82
8 Mark Buehrle TOR SP 36 0.0% 13.8 15 13 12 2.2 214 86
9 CC Sabathia NYY SP 34 0.0% 6.3 6 3 14 3.0 214 86
10 John Lackey STL SP 36 0.0% 12.8 13 14 10 2.0 165 135
11 Barry Zito OAK SP 37 0.0% 0.8 0 5 1.7 165 135
12 A. J. Burnett PIT SP 38 0.0% 8.8 9 8 10 1.5 164 136
13 Justin Verlander DET SP 32 0.0% 9.7 5 15 13 4.6 157 143
14 Dan Haren MIA/CHC SP 34 0.0% 11.5 11 13 10 3.1 153 147
15 Kyle Lohse MIL SP 36 0.0% 8.7 5 13 11 2.0 147 153
16 Jake Peavy SFG SP 34 0.0% 8.3 8 7 12 3.5 147 153
17 Jered Weaver LAA SP 32 0.0% 11.3 7 18 11 4.4 138 162
18 Randy Wolf DET SP 38 0.0% 0.3 0 1 1.5 133 167
19 Aaron Harang PHI SP 37 0.0% 7.8 6 12 5 1.7 128 172
20 Jon Lester CHC SP 31 0.0% 13.3 11 16 15 5.1 127 173
21 James Shields SDP SP 33 0.0% 13.3 13 14 13 3.9 127 173
22 Ervin Santana MIN SP 32 0.0% 9.7 7 14 9 4.5 126 174
23 Jason Marquis CIN SP 36 0.0% 3.0 3 9 1.9 124 176
24 Cole Hamels PHI/TEX SP 31 0.0% 10.8 13 9 8 5.1 121 179
25 Adam Wainwright STL SP 33 0.0% 10.8 2 20 19 3.7 121 179
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