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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 2009 2008 2007 Yrs Career Needed
1 Randy Johnson* SFG SP 45 100.0% 8.3 8 11 4 1.5 303 0
2 CC Sabathia NYY SP 28 24.2% 18.3 19 17 19 6.6 136 164
3 Felix Hernandez SEA SP 23 11.7% 14.8 19 9 14 10.1 58 242
4 Justin Verlander DET SP 26 6.3% 16.2 19 11 18 8.2 65 235
5 Roy Halladay TOR SP 32 5.4% 17.8 17 20 16 4.7 148 152
6 Josh Beckett BOS SP 29 3.2% 15.8 17 12 20 6.5 106 194
7 Tim Lincecum SFG SP 25 0.6% 14.7 15 18 7 9.0 40 260
8 Jamie Moyer PHI SP 46 0.0% 13.7 12 16 14 1.5 258 42
9 Andy Pettitte NYY SP 37 0.0% 14.2 14 14 15 1.8 229 71
10 Pedro Martinez PHI SP 37 0.0% 4.7 5 5 3 1.5 219 81
11 John Smoltz BOS/STL SP 42 0.0% 4.8 3 3 14 1.5 213 87
12 Tim Wakefield BOS SP 42 0.0% 11.7 11 10 17 1.5 189 111
13 Livan Hernandez NYM/WAS SP 34 0.0% 10.7 9 13 11 3.4 156 144
14 Kevin Millwood TEX SP 34 0.0% 11.2 13 9 10 3.3 155 145
15 Bartolo Colon CHW SP 36 0.0% 3.8 3 4 6 2.3 153 147
16 Mike Hampton HOU SP 36 0.0% 5.3 7 3 1.9 148 152
17 Tim Hudson ATL SP 33 0.0% 7.3 2 11 16 3.6 148 152
18 Javier Vazquez ATL SP 32 0.0% 14.0 15 12 15 4.2 142 158
19 Derek Lowe ATL SP 36 0.0% 14.2 15 14 12 2.4 141 159
20 Tom Gordon ARI RP 41 0.0% 2.2 0 5 3 1.5 138 162
21 Roy Oswalt HOU SP 31 0.0% 12.0 8 17 14 4.9 137 163
22 Mark Buehrle CHW SP 30 0.0% 13.2 13 15 10 5.8 135 165
23 Jeff Suppan MIL SP 34 0.0% 8.8 7 10 12 3.3 135 165
24 Barry Zito SFG SP 31 0.0% 10.2 10 10 11 5.3 133 167
25 Jason Schmidt LAD SP 36 0.0% 1.5 2 1 2.1 130 170
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