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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 2008 2007 2006 Yrs Career Needed
1 Josh Beckett BOS SP 28 1.8% 15.3 12 20 16 7.1 89 211
2 Roberto Hernandez CLE SP 27 0.0% 10.5 8 19 1 7.3 28 272
3 John Lackey LAA SP 29 0.0% 14.5 12 19 13 6.2 91 209
4 Jake Peavy SDP SP 27 0.0% 13.2 10 19 11 7.7 86 214
5 CC Sabathia CLE/MIL SP 27 16.5% 16.8 17 19 12 7.2 117 183
6 Chien-Ming Wang NYY SP 28 0.0% 13.5 8 19 19 7.0 54 246
7 Justin Verlander DET SP 25 0.0% 14.3 11 18 17 8.8 46 254
8 Brandon Webb ARI SP 29 10.1% 19.7 22 18 16 6.5 87 213
9 Carlos Zambrano CHC SP 27 9.5% 15.7 14 18 16 7.8 96 204
10 Jeff Francis COL SP 27 0.0% 9.8 4 17 13 7.5 51 249
11 Tim Wakefield BOS SP 41 0.0% 11.8 10 17 7 1.5 178 122
12 Miguel Batista SEA RP 37 0.0% 9.2 4 16 11 1.6 88 212
13 Roy Halladay TOR SP 31 6.7% 18.0 20 16 16 5.3 131 169
14 Aaron Harang CIN SP 30 0.0% 11.0 6 16 16 5.9 69 231
15 Tim Hudson ATL SP 32 0.0% 13.0 11 16 13 4.2 146 154
16 Brad Penny LAD SP 30 0.0% 11.0 6 16 16 5.9 94 206
17 Paul Byrd CLE/BOS SP 37 0.0% 12.2 11 15 10 1.5 108 192
18 Cole Hamels PHI SP 24 0.0% 13.5 14 15 9 9.3 38 262
19 Dan Haren ARI SP 27 0.0% 15.3 16 15 14 7.3 65 235
20 Ted Lilly CHC SP 32 0.0% 16.0 17 15 15 4.5 91 209
21 John Maine NYM SP 27 0.0% 11.0 10 15 6 7.7 33 267
22 Daisuke Matsuzaka BOS SP 27 0.0% 14.0 18 15 7.3 33 267
23 Oliver Perez NYM SP 26 0.0% 10.5 10 15 3 7.9 55 245
24 Andy Pettitte NYY SP 36 0.0% 14.3 14 15 14 2.4 215 85
25 Johan Santana NYM SP 29 4.3% 16.2 16 15 19 6.4 109 191
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