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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 2008 2007 2006 Yrs Career Needed
1 Jamie Moyer PHI SP 45 0.0% 14.5 16 14 11 1.5 246 54
2 Randy Johnson* ARI SP 44 98.4% 9.7 11 4 17 1.5 295 5
3 Kenny Rogers DET SP 43 0.0% 8.3 9 3 17 1.5 219 81
4 Mike Timlin BOS RP 42 0.0% 3.7 4 2 6 1.5 75 225
5 Tom Glavine* ATL SP 42 100.0% 7.8 2 13 15 1.5 305 0
6 Greg Maddux* SDP/LAD SP 42 100.0% 11.2 8 14 15 1.5 355 0
7 Moises Alou NYM LF 41 0.0% 0.0 1.5
8 Tim Wakefield BOS SP 41 0.0% 11.8 10 17 7 1.5 178 122
9 Omar Vizquel SFG SS 41 0.0% 0.0 1.5
10 John Smoltz ATL SP 41 0.0% 8.8 3 14 16 1.5 210 90
11 Doug Brocail HOU RP 41 0.0% 5.5 7 5 2 1.5 51 249
12 Luis Gonzalez FLA LF 40 0.0% 0.0 1.5
13 Trevor Hoffman SDP RP 40 0.0% 2.8 3 4 0 1.5 56 244
14 Tom Gordon PHI RP 40 0.0% 4.0 5 3 3 1.5 138 162
15 Kent Mercker CIN RP 40 0.0% 0.8 1 1 1.5 74 226
16 J. T. Snow SFG - 40 0.0% 0.0 1.5
17 Matt Stairs TOR/PHI DH 40 0.0% 0.0 1.5
18 Jeff Kent LAD 2B 40 0.0% 0.0 1.5
19 Todd Jones DET RP 40 0.0% 3.0 4 1 2 1.5 58 242
20 Frank Thomas TOR/OAK DH 40 0.0% 0.0 1.5
21 Hideo Nomo KCR RP 39 0.0% 0.0 0 1.5 123 177
22 Brian Shouse MIL RP 39 0.0% 3.8 5 1 1 1.5 12 288
23 Keiichi Yabu SFG RP 39 0.0% 2.3 3 1.5 7 293
24 Rudy Seanez PHI RP 39 0.0% 5.0 5 6 3 1.5 41 259
25 Russ Springer STL RP 39 0.0% 3.8 2 8 1 1.5 35 265
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