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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 2008 2007 2006 Yrs Career Needed
1 Greg Maddux* SDP/LAD SP 42 100.0% 11.2 8 14 15 1.5 355 0
2 Tom Glavine* ATL SP 42 100.0% 7.8 2 13 15 1.5 305 0
3 Randy Johnson* ARI SP 44 98.4% 9.7 11 4 17 1.5 295 5
4 Mike Mussina NYY SP 39 30.8% 16.2 20 11 15 1.5 270 30
5 CC Sabathia CLE/MIL SP 27 16.5% 16.8 17 19 12 7.2 117 183
6 Brandon Webb ARI SP 29 10.1% 19.7 22 18 16 6.5 87 213
7 Carlos Zambrano CHC SP 27 9.5% 15.7 14 18 16 7.8 96 204
8 Roy Halladay TOR SP 31 6.7% 18.0 20 16 16 5.3 131 169
9 Johan Santana NYM SP 29 4.3% 16.2 16 15 19 6.4 109 191
10 Josh Beckett BOS SP 28 1.8% 15.3 12 20 16 7.1 89 211
11 Roy Oswalt HOU SP 30 0.4% 15.7 17 14 15 5.5 129 171
12 Jamie Moyer PHI SP 45 0.0% 14.5 16 14 11 1.5 246 54
13 Kenny Rogers DET SP 43 0.0% 8.3 9 3 17 1.5 219 81
14 Andy Pettitte NYY SP 36 0.0% 14.3 14 15 14 2.4 215 85
15 Pedro Martinez NYM SP 36 0.0% 5.0 5 3 9 2.0 214 86
16 John Smoltz ATL SP 41 0.0% 8.8 3 14 16 1.5 210 90
17 Tim Wakefield BOS SP 41 0.0% 11.8 10 17 7 1.5 178 122
18 Bartolo Colon BOS SP 35 0.0% 4.2 4 6 1 2.9 150 150
19 Livan Hernandez MIN/COL SP 33 0.0% 12.3 13 11 13 4.0 147 153
20 Tim Hudson ATL SP 32 0.0% 13.0 11 16 13 4.2 146 154
21 Steve Trachsel BAL SP 37 0.0% 5.8 2 7 15 1.5 143 157
22 Kevin Millwood TEX SP 33 0.0% 10.5 9 10 16 3.9 142 158
23 Mike Hampton ATL SP 35 0.0% 2.3 3 2.5 141 159
24 Tom Gordon PHI RP 40 0.0% 4.0 5 3 3 1.5 138 162
25 Jon Lieber CHC RP 38 0.0% 3.5 2 3 9 1.5 131 169
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