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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 2008 2007 2006 Yrs Career Needed
1 Ken Griffey* CIN/CHW RF 38 100.0% 23.5 18 30 27 1.5 611 0
2 Alex Rodriguez* NYY 3B 32 100.0% 41.3 35 54 35 4.2 553 0
3 Jim Thome* CHW DH 37 100.0% 35.7 34 35 42 1.5 541 0
4 Manny Ramirez* BOS/LAD LF 36 100.0% 31.0 37 20 35 2.3 527 0
5 Frank Thomas* TOR/OAK DH 40 100.0% 19.2 8 26 39 1.5 521 0
6 Gary Sheffield* DET DH 39 99.8% 18.8 19 25 6 1.5 499 1
7 Carlos Delgado NYM 1B 36 97.2% 33.3 38 24 38 2.4 469 31
8 Albert Pujols* STL 1B 28 86.3% 37.3 37 32 49 6.9 319 181
9 Adam Dunn CIN/ARI LF 28 72.8% 40.0 40 40 40 6.8 278 222
10 Ryan Howard PHI 1B 28 54.3% 49.3 48 47 58 6.8 177 323
11 Vladimir Guerrero LAA RF 33 52.8% 28.0 27 27 33 4.0 392 108
12 Prince Fielder MIL 1B 24 44.5% 38.3 34 50 28 9.5 114 386
13 Miguel Cabrera DET 1B 25 43.3% 34.2 37 34 26 8.9 175 325
14 Mark Teixeira ATL/LAA 1B 28 26.1% 32.0 33 30 33 7.1 203 297
15 David Wright NYM 3B 25 22.3% 30.8 33 30 26 8.7 130 370
16 Lance Berkman HOU 1B 32 21.8% 33.3 29 34 45 4.6 288 212
17 Carlos Beltran NYM CF 31 19.9% 31.3 27 33 41 5.3 263 237
18 Andruw Jones LAD CF 31 19.7% 17.0 3 26 41 5.3 371 129
19 Aramis Ramirez CHC 3B 30 18.0% 28.5 27 26 38 6.0 249 251
20 David Ortiz* BOS DH 32 17.5% 32.2 23 35 54 4.4 289 211
21 Carlos Lee HOU LF 32 17.3% 30.8 28 32 37 4.8 281 219
22 Adrian Gonzalez SDP 1B 26 16.0% 32.0 36 30 24 8.3 97 403
23 Troy Glaus STL 3B 31 15.6% 26.5 27 20 38 4.9 304 196
24 Alfonso Soriano CHC LF 32 15.0% 33.2 29 33 46 4.5 270 230
25 Ryan Braun MIL LF 24 14.2% 29.8 37 34 9.2 71 429
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