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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 2007 2006 2005 Yrs Career Needed
1 Roger Clemens* NYY SP 44 100.0% 7.5 6 7 13 1.5 354 0
2 Greg Maddux* SDP SP 41 100.0% 14.2 14 15 13 1.5 347 0
3 Tom Glavine* NYM SP 41 100.0% 13.7 13 15 13 1.5 303 0
4 Randy Johnson* ARI SP 43 48.4% 10.5 4 17 17 1.5 284 16
5 Carlos Zambrano CHC SP 26 13.8% 16.7 18 16 14 8.4 82 218
6 CC Sabathia CLE SP 26 12.7% 16.0 19 12 15 7.8 100 200
7 Josh Beckett BOS SP 27 11.8% 17.8 20 16 15 7.7 77 223
8 Jake Peavy SDP SP 26 7.2% 15.3 19 11 13 8.3 76 224
9 Johan Santana MIN SP 28 6.0% 16.5 15 19 16 7.0 93 207
10 Justin Verlander DET SP 24 1.9% 14.7 18 17 0 9.4 35 265
11 Chien-Ming Wang NYY SP 27 1.7% 17.2 19 19 8 7.7 46 254
12 Brandon Webb ARI SP 28 0.4% 16.7 18 16 14 7.1 65 235
13 Mike Mussina NYY SP 38 0.0% 12.7 11 15 13 1.5 250 50
14 David Wells SDP/LAD SP 44 0.0% 8.0 9 3 15 1.5 239 61
15 Jamie Moyer PHI SP 44 0.0% 12.8 14 11 13 1.5 230 70
16 Curt Schilling BOS SP 40 0.0% 10.8 9 15 8 1.5 216 84
17 Kenny Rogers DET SP 42 0.0% 9.5 3 17 14 1.5 210 90
18 Pedro Martinez NYM SP 35 0.0% 7.0 3 9 15 2.6 209 91
19 John Smoltz ATL SP 40 0.0% 14.7 14 16 14 1.5 207 93
20 Andy Pettitte NYY SP 35 0.0% 15.0 15 14 17 3.0 201 99
21 Tim Wakefield BOS SP 40 0.0% 13.5 17 7 16 1.5 168 132
22 Aaron Sele NYM RP 37 0.0% 5.2 3 8 6 1.8 148 152
23 Bartolo Colon LAA SP 34 0.0% 6.8 6 1 21 3.5 146 154
24 Steve Trachsel BAL/CHC SP 36 0.0% 8.7 7 15 1 2.0 141 159
25 Tim Hudson ATL SP 31 0.0% 14.7 16 13 14 4.8 135 165
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