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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 2007 2006 2005 Yrs Career Needed
1 Barry Bonds* SFG LF 42 100.0% 23.5 28 26 5 1.5 762 0
2 Sammy Sosa* TEX DH 38 100.0% 15.8 21 14 1.5 609 0
3 Ken Griffey* CIN RF 37 100.0% 29.8 30 27 35 1.5 593 0
4 Alex Rodriguez* NYY 3B 31 100.0% 46.7 54 35 48 4.8 518 0
5 Frank Thomas* TOR DH 39 100.0% 28.0 26 39 12 1.5 513 0
6 Jim Thome* CHW DH 36 100.0% 32.7 35 42 7 1.9 507 0
7 Manny Ramirez* BOS LF 35 99.0% 29.2 20 35 45 2.9 490 10
8 Gary Sheffield* DET DH 38 97.0% 20.2 25 6 34 1.5 480 20
9 Andruw Jones ATL CF 30 89.2% 35.2 26 41 51 5.9 368 132
10 Albert Pujols* STL 1B 27 84.4% 39.2 32 49 41 7.5 282 218
11 Carlos Delgado NYM 1B 35 80.8% 30.2 24 38 33 3.0 431 69
12 Adam Dunn CIN LF 27 63.2% 40.0 40 40 40 7.4 238 262
13 Vladimir Guerrero LAA RF 32 50.9% 29.8 27 33 32 4.6 365 135
14 David Ortiz* BOS DH 31 43.1% 43.3 35 54 47 5.0 266 234
15 Ryan Howard PHI 1B 27 43.1% 46.5 47 58 22 7.4 129 371
16 Prince Fielder MIL 1B 23 40.3% 37.5 50 28 2 10.1 80 420
17 Miguel Cabrera FLA 3B 24 31.6% 31.2 34 26 33 9.5 138 362
18 Paul Konerko CHW 1B 31 28.7% 33.8 31 35 40 5.2 276 224
19 Lance Berkman HOU 1B 31 27.2% 36.0 34 45 24 5.2 259 241
20 Mark Teixeira TEX/ATL 1B 27 27.1% 33.2 30 33 43 7.7 170 330
21 Alfonso Soriano CHC LF 31 24.7% 37.8 33 46 36 5.1 241 259
22 Carlos Lee HOU LF 31 23.4% 33.7 32 37 32 5.4 253 247
23 Carlos Beltran NYM CF 30 23.2% 32.8 33 41 16 5.9 236 264
24 Aramis Ramirez CHC 3B 29 23.1% 30.8 26 38 31 6.6 222 278
25 Troy Glaus TOR 3B 30 20.5% 28.8 20 38 37 5.5 277 223
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