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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1994 1993 1992 Yrs Career Needed
1 Ken Griffey* SEA CF 24 61.2% 39.5 40 45 27 9.2 172 328
2 Barry Bonds* SFG LF 29 49.0% 39.5 37 46 34 6.0 259 241
3 Matt Williams SFG 3B 28 36.2% 37.5 43 38 20 6.8 202 298
4 Frank Thomas* CHW 1B 26 35.5% 36.7 38 41 24 8.3 142 358
5 Fred McGriff ATL 1B 30 32.7% 35.2 34 37 35 5.6 262 238
6 Juan Gonzalez TEX LF 24 31.6% 32.0 19 46 43 9.2 140 360
7 Albert Belle CLE LF 27 24.4% 36.3 36 38 34 7.3 144 356
8 Eddie Murray* CLE DH 38 22.0% 20.2 17 27 16 1.5 458 42
9 Dave Winfield MIN DH 42 16.2% 16.3 10 21 26 1.5 463 37
10 Jose Canseco TEX DH 29 12.3% 23.3 31 10 26 6.0 276 224
11 Jeff Bagwell HOU 1B 26 9.8% 29.3 39 20 18 8.3 92 408
12 Cecil Fielder DET 1B 30 8.8% 29.8 28 30 35 5.5 219 281
13 Gary Sheffield* FLA RF 25 5.5% 25.7 27 20 33 8.6 101 399
14 Dean Palmer TEX 3B 25 3.1% 24.8 19 33 26 8.7 93 407
15 Sammy Sosa* CHC RF 25 2.9% 24.8 25 33 8 8.6 95 405
16 Joe Carter TOR RF 34 2.0% 30.2 27 33 34 3.4 302 198
17 David Justice ATL RF 28 0.3% 26.3 19 40 21 7.1 130 370
18 Andre Dawson BOS DH 39 0.0% 16.0 16 13 22 1.5 428 72
19 Lance Parrish PIT C 38 0.0% 3.8 3 1 12 1.5 320 180
20 Cal Ripken BAL SS 33 0.0% 16.8 13 24 14 3.7 310 190
21 Darryl Strawberry SFG RF 32 0.0% 4.5 4 5 5 4.6 294 206
22 Kent Hrbek MIN 1B 34 0.0% 15.8 10 25 15 3.5 293 207
23 Harold Baines BAL DH 35 0.0% 17.3 16 20 16 2.8 277 223
24 Tom Brunansky MIL/BOS RF 33 0.0% 9.5 10 6 15 3.7 271 229
25 Gary Gaetti KCR 3B 35 0.0% 12.7 12 14 12 2.5 257 243
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