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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1991 1990 1989 Yrs Career Needed
1 Nolan Ryan* TEX SP 44 100.0% 13.0 12 13 16 1.5 314 0
2 Roger Clemens* BOS SP 28 25.5% 18.8 18 21 17 6.7 134 166
3 Dwight Gooden NYM SP 26 18.5% 14.3 13 19 9 8.0 132 168
4 Ramon Martinez LAD SP 23 13.4% 16.2 17 20 6 10.0 44 256
5 Greg Maddux* CHC SP 25 11.8% 15.7 15 15 19 8.9 75 225
6 Tom Glavine* ATL SP 25 6.1% 15.7 20 10 14 8.8 53 247
7 Scott Erickson MIN SP 23 4.9% 15.0 20 8 10.0 28 272
8 Steve Avery ATL SP 21 4.5% 13.5 18 3 11.3 21 279
9 Frank Viola NYM SP 31 4.0% 15.3 13 20 13 5.3 150 150
10 Jim Abbott CAL SP 23 3.6% 14.3 18 10 12 9.7 40 260
11 Doug Drabek PIT SP 28 2.8% 17.2 15 22 14 6.6 84 216
12 Chuck Finley CAL SP 28 1.7% 17.7 18 18 16 6.8 66 234
13 John Smiley PIT SP 26 1.4% 15.0 20 9 12 8.2 60 240
14 Bob Welch OAK SP 34 1.1% 17.8 12 27 17 3.2 188 112
15 John Smoltz ATL SP 24 0.4% 13.7 14 14 12 9.5 42 258
16 Frank Tanana DET SP 37 0.0% 11.2 13 9 10 1.5 220 80
17 Jack Morris MIN SP 36 0.0% 15.0 18 15 6 2.3 216 84
18 Rick Reuschel SFG SP 42 0.0% 3.8 0 3 17 1.5 214 86
19 Charlie Hough CHW SP 43 0.0% 10.2 9 12 10 1.5 195 105
20 Dennis Martinez MON SP 37 0.0% 13.0 14 10 16 1.7 177 123
21 John Candelaria LAD RP 37 0.0% 3.3 1 7 3 1.5 175 125
22 Dennis Eckersley OAK RP 36 0.0% 4.5 5 4 4 2.0 174 126
23 Dave Stieb TOR SP 33 0.0% 10.8 4 18 17 3.6 170 130
24 Mike Flanagan BAL RP 39 0.0% 3.0 2 2 8 1.5 167 133
25 Fernando Valenzuela CAL SP 30 0.0% 6.0 0 13 10 5.6 141 159
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