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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1986 1985 1984 Yrs Career Needed
1 Steve Carlton* 3 Tms SP 41 100.0% 7.0 9 1 13 1.5 323 0
2 Phil Niekro* CLE SP 47 100.0% 13.5 11 16 16 1.5 311 0
3 Tom Seaver* CHW/BOS SP 41 100.0% 11.3 7 16 15 1.5 311 0
4 Don Sutton* CAL SP 41 100.0% 14.8 15 15 14 1.5 310 0
5 Dwight Gooden NYM SP 21 38.1% 19.3 17 24 17 11.0 58 242
6 Fernando Valenzuela LAD SP 25 27.8% 18.2 21 17 12 8.6 99 201
7 Bert Blyleven MIN SP 35 19.8% 17.3 17 17 19 2.9 229 71
8 Roger Clemens* BOS SP 23 16.8% 18.0 24 7 9 9.7 40 260
9 Jack Morris DET SP 31 14.8% 19.0 21 16 19 5.3 144 156
10 Mike Witt CAL SP 25 10.8% 16.5 18 15 15 8.4 71 229
11 Frank Viola MIN SP 26 9.4% 17.0 16 18 18 8.3 63 237
12 Bill Gullickson CIN SP 27 0.4% 14.2 15 14 12 7.6 87 213
13 Tommy John NYY SP 43 0.0% 5.0 5 4 7 1.5 264 36
14 Nolan Ryan* HOU SP 39 0.0% 11.3 12 10 12 1.5 253 47
15 Joe Niekro NYY SP 41 0.0% 10.8 9 11 16 1.5 213 87
16 Vida Blue SFG SP 36 0.0% 7.7 10 8 1.8 209 91
17 Jerry Reuss LAD SP 37 0.0% 6.5 2 14 5 1.8 194 106
18 Ron Guidry NYY SP 35 0.0% 13.5 9 22 10 2.5 163 137
19 Rick Reuschel PIT SP 37 0.0% 10.0 9 14 5 1.7 162 138
20 Doyle Alexander TOR/ATL SP 35 0.0% 14.0 11 17 17 2.5 160 140
21 Frank Tanana DET SP 32 0.0% 12.5 12 12 15 4.2 159 141
22 Dennis Eckersley CHC SP 31 0.0% 9.0 6 11 14 5.0 151 149
23 Jim Slaton CAL/DET RP 36 0.0% 5.2 4 6 7 2.4 151 149
24 Dennis Leonard KCR SP 35 0.0% 6.0 8 0 2.9 144 156
25 Bob Forsch STL SP 36 0.0% 10.5 14 9 2 2.1 143 157
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