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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1975 1974 1973 Yrs Career Needed
1 Catfish Hunter NYY SP 29 80.0% 23.3 23 25 21 6.5 184 116
2 Vida Blue OAK SP 25 31.2% 20.0 22 17 20 8.4 92 208
3 Fergie Jenkins TEX SP 32 28.6% 19.2 17 25 14 4.5 191 109
4 Ken Holtzman OAK SP 29 28.4% 18.8 18 19 21 6.2 151 149
5 Bert Blyleven MIN SP 24 26.1% 16.5 15 17 20 9.5 95 205
6 Tom Seaver* NYM SP 30 26.1% 17.8 22 11 19 5.6 168 132
7 Jim Palmer BAL SP 29 23.0% 17.5 23 7 22 6.2 152 148
8 Don Sutton* LAD SP 30 20.0% 17.3 16 19 18 5.9 155 145
9 Don Gullett CIN SP 24 18.4% 16.2 15 17 18 9.3 80 220
10 Steve Busby KCR SP 25 17.4% 19.0 18 22 16 8.5 59 241
11 Jerry Reuss PIT SP 26 15.1% 17.0 18 16 16 8.4 81 219
12 Nolan Ryan* CAL SP 28 13.6% 17.8 14 22 21 7.0 105 195
13 Jim Kaat CHW SP 36 10.4% 19.5 20 21 15 2.0 235 65
14 Andy Messersmith LAD SP 29 9.6% 18.5 19 20 14 6.1 112 188
15 Steve Carlton* PHI SP 30 6.1% 15.0 15 16 13 5.7 148 152
16 Joe Coleman DET SP 28 4.9% 13.5 10 14 23 7.0 129 171
17 Doc Medich NYY SP 26 3.6% 16.7 16 19 14 8.1 49 251
18 Jon Matlack NYM SP 25 2.9% 14.7 16 13 14 8.7 58 242
19 Frank Tanana CAL SP 21 2.4% 13.0 16 14 2 10.8 32 268
20 Rick Wise BOS SP 29 1.0% 14.3 19 3 16 6.1 129 171
21 Bill Lee BOS SP 28 1.0% 17.0 17 17 17 6.9 70 230
22 Mike Torrez BAL SP 28 0.4% 16.5 20 15 9 6.7 81 219
23 Bob Gibson STL SP 39 0.0% 7.2 3 11 12 1.5 251 49
24 Juan Marichal LAD SP 37 0.0% 3.5 0 5 11 1.5 243 57
25 Gaylord Perry* CLE/TEX SP 36 0.0% 19.2 18 21 19 1.9 216 84
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