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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1975 1974 1973 Yrs Career Needed
1 Hank Aaron* MIL DH 41 100.0% 19.3 12 20 40 1.5 745 0
2 Frank Robinson* CLE DH 39 100.0% 16.8 9 22 30 1.5 583 0
3 Harmon Killebrew* KCR DH 39 100.0% 12.2 14 13 5 1.5 573 0
4 Reggie Jackson* OAK RF 29 37.6% 33.0 36 29 32 6.5 254 246
5 Willie McCovey* SDP 1B 37 35.5% 23.7 23 22 29 1.5 458 42
6 Johnny Bench CIN C 27 33.7% 29.2 28 33 25 7.5 240 260
7 Mike Schmidt* PHI 3B 25 21.4% 34.0 38 36 18 8.5 93 407
8 Bobby Bonds NYY RF 29 17.2% 29.5 32 21 39 6.4 218 282
9 Jeff Burroughs TEX RF 24 13.9% 27.8 29 25 30 9.4 90 410
10 John Mayberry KCR 1B 26 11.6% 28.7 34 22 26 8.2 119 381
11 Dave Kingman NYM LF 26 8.5% 28.0 36 18 24 8.1 113 387
12 Greg Luzinski PHI LF 24 7.6% 25.5 34 7 29 9.2 91 409
13 Willie Stargell PIT 1B 35 6.7% 26.7 22 25 44 2.8 368 132
14 Billy Williams OAK DH 37 0.0% 20.2 23 16 20 1.8 415 85
15 Dick Allen PHI 1B 33 0.0% 19.3 12 32 16 4.0 331 169
16 Boog Powell CLE 1B 33 0.0% 20.3 27 12 11 3.7 330 170
17 Carl Yastrzemski BOS 1B 35 0.0% 15.2 14 15 19 2.5 317 183
18 Jimmy Wynn LAD CF 33 0.0% 23.0 18 32 20 4.0 273 227
19 Brooks Robinson BAL 3B 38 0.0% 6.8 6 7 9 1.5 264 236
20 Tony Perez CIN 1B 33 0.0% 23.8 20 28 27 4.1 258 242
21 Vada Pinson KCR RF 36 0.0% 5.3 4 6 8 1.9 256 244
22 Willie Horton DET DH 32 0.0% 20.3 25 15 17 4.4 248 252
23 Lee May BAL 1B 32 0.0% 22.7 20 24 28 4.6 248 252
24 Joe Torre NYM 3B 34 0.0% 8.8 6 11 13 3.0 246 254
25 Deron Johnson CHW/BOS DH 36 0.0% 17.2 19 13 20 1.8 245 255
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