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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1974 1973 1972 Yrs Career Needed
1 Catfish Hunter OAK SP 28 66.9% 23.0 25 21 21 7.1 161 139
2 Fergie Jenkins TEX SP 31 32.5% 20.5 25 14 20 5.1 174 126
3 Bert Blyleven MIN SP 23 32.3% 18.0 17 20 17 10.1 80 220
4 Ken Holtzman OAK SP 28 30.1% 19.7 19 21 19 6.8 133 167
5 Nolan Ryan* CAL SP 27 26.5% 21.2 22 21 19 7.6 91 209
6 Don Sutton* LAD SP 29 24.8% 18.7 19 18 19 6.5 139 161
7 Joe Coleman DET SP 27 24.5% 17.8 14 23 19 7.6 119 181
8 Don Gullett CIN SP 23 17.5% 16.0 17 18 9 9.9 65 235
9 Dave McNally BAL SP 31 16.5% 15.8 16 17 13 5.0 181 119
10 Vida Blue OAK SP 24 13.6% 16.2 17 20 6 9.0 70 230
11 Steve Carlton* PHI SP 29 13.4% 16.8 16 13 27 6.3 133 167
12 Tom Seaver* NYM SP 29 12.0% 15.3 11 19 21 6.2 146 154
13 Mickey Lolich DET SP 33 10.2% 17.0 16 16 22 3.7 195 105
14 Ross Grimsley BAL SP 24 9.5% 15.7 18 13 14 9.3 55 245
15 Steve Busby KCR SP 24 9.5% 16.8 22 16 3 9.1 41 259
16 Jim Palmer BAL SP 28 6.8% 14.3 7 22 21 6.8 129 171
17 Jerry Reuss PIT SP 25 6.2% 14.8 16 16 9 9.0 63 237
18 Wilbur Wood CHW SP 32 5.8% 22.0 20 24 24 4.4 127 173
19 Jim Kaat CHW SP 35 2.8% 17.2 21 15 10 2.6 215 85
20 Gaylord Perry* CLE SP 35 1.6% 20.8 21 19 24 2.5 198 102
21 Andy Messersmith LAD SP 28 1.5% 16.0 20 14 8 6.7 93 207
22 Stan Bahnsen CHW SP 29 0.1% 15.5 12 18 21 6.3 106 194
23 Bob Gibson STL SP 38 0.0% 12.7 11 12 19 1.5 248 52
24 Juan Marichal BOS SP 36 0.0% 7.2 5 11 6 2.0 243 57
25 Jim Perry CLE SP 38 0.0% 15.3 17 14 13 1.5 211 89
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