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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1973 1972 1971 Yrs Career Needed
1 Catfish Hunter OAK SP 27 48.1% 21.0 21 21 21 7.7 136 164
2 Joe Coleman DET SP 26 38.5% 21.2 23 19 20 8.2 105 195
3 Jim Palmer BAL SP 27 38.4% 21.3 22 21 20 7.4 122 178
4 Bert Blyleven MIN SP 22 32.4% 18.3 20 17 16 10.7 63 237
5 Tom Seaver* NYM SP 28 32.1% 19.8 19 21 20 6.8 135 165
6 Ken Holtzman OAK SP 27 23.0% 18.3 21 19 9 7.4 114 186
7 Don Sutton* LAD SP 28 21.2% 18.2 18 19 17 7.1 120 180
8 Steve Carlton* PHI SP 28 20.9% 18.8 13 27 20 6.9 117 183
9 Mickey Lolich DET SP 32 19.6% 19.5 16 22 25 4.3 179 121
10 Dave McNally BAL SP 30 17.8% 16.3 17 13 21 5.6 165 135
11 Fergie Jenkins CHC SP 30 16.3% 17.7 14 20 24 5.7 149 151
12 Nolan Ryan* CAL SP 26 15.3% 18.5 21 19 10 8.2 69 231
13 Ron Bryant SFG SP 25 13.1% 18.0 24 14 7 8.6 54 246
14 Vida Blue OAK SP 23 12.5% 16.0 20 6 24 9.6 53 247
15 Rick Wise STL SP 27 11.3% 16.2 16 16 17 7.3 107 193
16 Stan Bahnsen CHW SP 28 11.2% 18.3 18 21 14 6.9 94 206
17 Don Gullett CIN SP 22 11.2% 14.7 18 9 16 10.5 48 252
18 Wilbur Wood CHW SP 31 11.1% 23.7 24 24 22 5.0 107 193
19 Mel Stottlemyre NYY SP 31 4.2% 15.3 16 14 16 5.0 158 142
20 Claude Osteen LAD SP 33 1.9% 17.0 16 20 14 3.7 180 120
21 Gaylord Perry* CLE SP 34 1.2% 20.2 19 24 16 3.1 177 123
22 Jerry Reuss HOU SP 24 0.5% 13.3 16 9 14 9.6 47 253
23 Juan Marichal SFG SP 35 0.0% 10.5 11 6 18 2.6 238 62
24 Bob Gibson STL SP 37 0.0% 15.0 12 19 16 1.5 237 63
25 Milt Pappas CHC SP 34 0.0% 12.0 7 17 17 3.5 209 91
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