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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1973 1972 1971 Yrs Career Needed
1 Hank Aaron* ATL LF 39 100.0% 39.2 40 34 47 1.5 713 0
2 Willie Mays* NYM CF 42 100.0% 8.7 6 8 18 1.5 660 0
3 Frank Robinson* CAL DH 37 100.0% 26.0 30 19 28 1.5 552 0
4 Harmon Killebrew* MIN 1B 37 100.0% 15.8 5 26 28 1.8 546 0
5 Willie Stargell PIT LF 33 41.8% 41.0 44 33 48 4.0 321 179
6 Johnny Bench CIN C 25 31.8% 30.3 25 40 27 8.7 179 321
7 Bobby Bonds SFG RF 27 26.6% 33.7 39 26 33 7.6 165 335
8 Reggie Jackson* OAK RF 27 23.7% 29.7 32 25 32 7.7 189 311
9 Willie McCovey* SFG 1B 35 19.2% 22.2 29 14 18 2.7 413 87
10 Billy Williams CHC LF 35 14.7% 27.0 20 37 28 3.0 376 124
11 Nate Colbert SDP 1B 27 11.5% 28.2 22 38 27 7.7 149 351
12 Darrell Evans ATL 3B 26 9.9% 30.8 41 19 12 8.3 72 428
13 Lee May HOU 1B 30 9.5% 30.2 28 29 39 5.8 204 296
14 Dick Allen CHW 1B 31 9.1% 24.2 16 37 23 5.2 287 213
15 Earl Williams BAL C 24 5.9% 25.8 22 28 33 9.0 83 417
16 Bobby Murcer NYY CF 27 4.7% 26.2 22 33 25 7.7 130 370
17 Cesar Cedeno HOU CF 22 2.2% 21.5 25 22 10 10.6 64 436
18 Jeff Burroughs TEX RF 22 1.4% 22.5 30 1 5 10.6 36 464
19 Greg Luzinski PHI LF 22 0.4% 21.8 29 18 3 10.4 50 450
20 Al Kaline DET RF 38 0.0% 10.8 10 10 15 1.5 386 114
21 Frank Howard DET DH 36 0.0% 13.7 12 10 26 1.9 382 118
22 Orlando Cepeda BOS DH 35 0.0% 15.0 20 4 14 2.5 378 122
23 Norm Cash DET 1B 38 0.0% 22.2 19 22 32 1.5 370 130
24 Ron Santo CHC 3B 33 0.0% 19.2 20 17 21 4.0 337 163
25 Boog Powell BAL 1B 31 0.0% 16.2 11 21 22 4.9 291 209
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