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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1966 1965 1964 Yrs Career Needed
1 Sandy Koufax LAD SP 30 56.9% 25.3 27 26 19 5.7 165 135
2 Juan Marichal SFG SP 28 43.1% 23.3 25 22 21 6.8 130 170
3 Robin Roberts HOU/CHC SP 39 35.7% 8.0 5 10 13 1.5 286 14
4 Don Drysdale LAD SP 29 34.3% 17.2 13 23 18 6.0 177 123
5 Jim Kaat MIN SP 27 28.3% 21.3 25 18 17 7.4 98 202
6 Tony Cloninger ATL SP 25 20.3% 18.2 14 24 19 8.5 81 219
7 Jim Maloney CIN SP 26 18.6% 17.2 16 20 15 8.4 91 209
8 Denny McLain DET SP 22 16.0% 16.0 20 16 4 10.6 42 258
9 Bob Gibson STL SP 30 10.7% 20.3 21 20 19 5.6 112 188
10 Chris Short PHI SP 28 9.5% 18.8 20 18 17 6.7 87 213
11 Dean Chance CAL SP 25 6.8% 14.3 12 15 20 9.0 74 226
12 Milt Pappas CIN SP 27 6.4% 13.0 12 13 16 7.7 122 178
13 Claude Osteen LAD SP 26 3.5% 16.0 17 15 15 7.9 65 235
14 Sammy Ellis CIN SP 25 1.8% 15.0 12 22 10 8.8 46 254
15 Mickey Lolich DET SP 25 1.5% 15.0 14 15 18 8.5 52 248
16 Mel Stottlemyre NYY SP 24 0.4% 14.2 12 20 9 9.2 41 259
17 Whitey Ford NYY SP 37 0.0% 9.2 2 16 17 1.5 234 66
18 Lew Burdette CAL RP 39 0.0% 6.2 7 3 10 1.5 202 98
19 Bob Friend NYY/NYM SP 35 0.0% 7.8 6 8 13 2.6 197 103
20 Curt Simmons STL/CHC SP 37 0.0% 8.5 5 9 18 1.7 188 112
21 Jim Bunning PHI SP 34 0.0% 19.0 19 19 19 3.2 175 125
22 Larry Jackson CHC/PHI SP 35 0.0% 16.2 15 14 24 3.0 168 132
23 Bob Buhl CHC/PHI SP 37 0.0% 9.8 6 13 15 1.5 166 134
24 Vern Law PIT SP 36 0.0% 13.7 12 17 12 2.2 160 140
25 Camilo Pascual MIN SP 32 0.0% 9.5 8 9 15 4.5 145 155
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