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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1962 1961 1960 Yrs Career Needed
1 Warren Spahn* MIL SP 41 100.0% 19.5 18 21 21 1.5 327 0
2 Early Wynn* CHW SP 42 99.6% 8.3 7 8 13 1.5 299 1
3 Don Drysdale LAD SP 25 33.2% 19.3 25 13 15 8.4 104 196
4 Ralph Terry NYY SP 26 15.6% 18.5 23 16 10 8.1 71 229
5 Joey Jay CIN SP 26 13.9% 19.0 21 21 9 7.9 66 234
6 Jim O'Toole CIN SP 25 7.4% 16.3 16 19 12 8.7 52 248
7 Bob Friend PIT SP 31 7.1% 16.7 18 14 18 5.0 153 147
8 Whitey Ford NYY SP 33 7.0% 18.8 17 25 12 3.8 175 125
9 Camilo Pascual MIN SP 28 6.7% 17.0 20 15 12 6.9 92 208
10 Milt Pappas BAL SP 23 5.2% 12.8 12 13 15 10.1 65 235
11 Johnny Podres LAD SP 29 2.6% 15.8 15 18 14 6.2 115 185
12 Art Mahaffey PHI SP 24 2.1% 14.3 19 11 7 9.6 37 263
13 Stan Williams LAD SP 25 0.3% 14.3 14 15 14 8.5 57 243
14 Juan Marichal SFG SP 24 0.0% 14.3 18 13 6 9.2 37 263
15 Sandy Koufax LAD SP 26 0.0% 14.3 14 18 8 8.1 68 232
16 Robin Roberts BAL SP 35 0.0% 7.5 10 1 12 2.5 244 56
17 Billy Pierce SFG SP 35 0.0% 13.7 16 10 14 2.9 205 95
18 Lew Burdette MIL SP 35 0.0% 14.2 10 18 19 2.6 173 127
19 Curt Simmons STL SP 33 0.0% 9.2 10 9 7 4.1 141 159
20 Harvey Haddix PIT SP 36 0.0% 9.7 9 10 11 1.9 125 175
21 Bob Buhl MIL/CHC SP 33 0.0% 11.7 12 9 16 3.7 121 179
22 Frank Lary DET SP 32 0.0% 11.2 2 23 15 4.7 119 181
23 Vern Law PIT SP 32 0.0% 9.3 10 3 20 4.6 115 185
24 Bobby Shantz HOU/STL RP 36 0.0% 5.8 6 6 5 1.9 111 189
25 Jim Bunning DET SP 30 0.0% 17.0 19 17 11 5.6 106 194
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