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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1958 1957 1956 Yrs Career Needed
1 Robin Roberts PHI SP 31 29.0% 15.0 17 10 19 4.9 206 94
2 Bob Friend PIT SP 27 17.1% 18.5 22 14 17 7.4 95 205
3 Warren Spahn* MIL SP 37 16.6% 21.3 22 21 20 1.7 246 54
4 Billy Pierce CHW SP 31 15.2% 18.5 17 20 20 5.3 151 149
5 Johnny Antonelli SFG SP 28 4.2% 15.3 16 12 20 7.1 100 200
6 Bob Turley NYY SP 27 2.7% 16.2 21 13 8 7.3 75 225
7 Pedro Ramos WAS SP 23 1.1% 13.0 14 12 12 10.1 43 257
8 Don Drysdale LAD SP 21 0.9% 12.5 12 17 5 10.8 34 266
9 Early Wynn* CHW SP 38 0.0% 15.0 14 14 20 1.5 249 51
10 Bob Lemon CLE RP 37 0.0% 5.3 0 6 20 1.5 207 93
11 Virgil Trucks KCA/NYY RP 41 0.0% 5.0 2 9 6 1.5 177 123
12 Murry Dickson KCA/NYY SP 41 0.0% 8.8 10 5 13 1.5 170 130
13 Mike Garcia CLE RP 34 0.0% 6.3 1 12 11 3.2 139 161
14 Don Newcombe LAD/CIN SP 32 0.0% 11.7 7 11 27 4.8 130 170
15 Carl Erskine LAD SP 31 0.0% 5.8 4 5 13 5.1 122 178
16 Bob Rush MIL SP 32 0.0% 9.2 10 6 13 4.5 120 180
17 Sal Maglie NYY/STL SP 41 0.0% 6.3 3 8 13 1.5 119 181
18 Ned Garver KCA SP 32 0.0% 9.0 12 6 0 4.5 115 185
19 Curt Simmons PHI SP 29 0.0% 10.0 7 12 15 6.5 115 185
20 Gerry Staley CHW RP 37 0.0% 5.0 4 5 8 1.5 111 189
21 Jim Hearn PHI RP 37 0.0% 5.0 5 5 5 1.7 109 191
22 Lew Burdette MIL SP 31 0.0% 18.8 20 17 19 5.0 105 195
23 Whitey Ford NYY SP 29 0.0% 13.8 14 11 19 6.2 105 195
24 Alex Kellner KCA/CIN SP 33 0.0% 6.7 7 6 7 3.7 99 201
25 Chuck Stobbs WAS/STL RP 28 0.0% 6.7 3 8 15 6.6 92 208
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