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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1958 1957 1956 Yrs Career Needed
1 Ted Williams* BOS LF 39 98.2% 29.7 26 38 24 1.5 482 18
2 Mickey Mantle* NYY CF 26 80.4% 41.0 42 34 52 8.0 249 251
3 Eddie Mathews* MIL 3B 26 54.3% 32.3 31 32 37 8.0 253 247
4 Ernie Banks* CHC SS 27 51.2% 42.5 47 43 28 7.6 183 317
5 Hank Aaron* MIL RF 24 38.4% 34.0 30 44 26 9.4 140 360
6 Willie Mays* SFG CF 27 37.3% 32.2 29 35 36 7.7 216 284
7 Duke Snider LAD CF 31 31.7% 28.0 15 40 43 4.9 331 169
8 Frank Robinson* CIN LF 22 30.7% 31.5 31 29 38 10.3 98 402
9 Rocky Colavito CLE RF 24 21.0% 32.3 41 25 21 9.1 87 413
10 Roy Sievers WAS LF 31 13.0% 38.3 39 42 29 5.0 194 306
11 Frank Thomas PIT 3B 29 7.2% 29.3 35 23 25 6.6 163 337
12 Stan Musial STL 1B 37 0.0% 22.7 17 29 27 1.5 398 102
13 Gil Hodges LAD 1B 34 0.0% 25.3 22 27 32 3.5 320 180
14 Hank Sauer SFG LF 41 0.0% 15.5 12 26 5 1.5 287 213
15 Del Ennis STL LF 33 0.0% 13.8 3 24 26 4.2 286 214
16 Yogi Berra NYY C 33 0.0% 24.0 22 24 30 4.1 284 216
17 Ted Kluszewski PIT 1B 33 0.0% 9.8 4 6 35 3.7 255 245
18 Larry Doby CLE CF 34 0.0% 15.2 13 14 24 3.3 253 247
19 Bobby Thomson CHC CF 34 0.0% 17.8 21 12 20 3.2 248 252
20 Gus Zernial DET LF 35 0.0% 14.2 5 27 16 3.0 230 270
21 Vic Wertz CLE 1B 33 0.0% 16.2 3 28 32 4.0 221 279
22 Andy Pafko MIL LF 37 0.0% 4.5 3 8 2 1.6 212 288
23 Carl Furillo LAD RF 36 0.0% 16.5 18 12 21 2.2 192 308
24 Willie Jones PHI 3B 32 0.0% 12.8 14 9 17 4.3 173 327
25 Mickey Vernon CLE 1B 40 0.0% 8.8 8 7 15 1.5 169 331
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