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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1957 1956 1955 Yrs Career Needed
1 Robin Roberts PHI SP 30 25.8% 15.2 10 19 23 5.5 189 111
2 Billy Pierce CHW SP 30 17.6% 19.2 20 20 15 5.9 134 166
3 Warren Spahn* MIL SP 36 10.2% 20.0 21 20 17 2.3 224 76
4 Tom Brewer BOS SP 25 6.3% 16.2 16 19 11 8.5 56 244
5 Don Newcombe BRO SP 31 4.1% 17.8 11 27 20 5.4 123 177
6 Johnny Antonelli NYG SP 27 3.3% 15.0 12 20 14 7.7 84 216
7 Bob Friend PIT SP 26 3.1% 15.0 14 17 14 8.0 73 227
8 Don Drysdale BRO SP 20 2.5% 12.8 17 5 11.4 22 278
9 Billy Hoeft DET SP 25 2.1% 13.8 9 20 16 8.9 63 237
10 Early Wynn* CLE SP 37 0.0% 16.5 14 20 17 1.5 235 65
11 Bob Lemon CLE SP 36 0.0% 12.7 6 20 18 1.9 207 93
12 Virgil Trucks KCA RP 40 0.0% 8.7 9 6 13 1.5 175 125
13 Dizzy Trout BAL RP 42 0.0% 0.0 0 1.5 170 130
14 Murry Dickson STL SP 40 0.0% 8.8 5 13 12 1.5 160 140
15 Mike Garcia CLE SP 33 0.0% 11.5 12 11 11 3.8 138 162
16 Steve Gromek DET RP 37 0.0% 4.8 0 8 13 1.5 123 177
17 Carl Erskine BRO SP 30 0.0% 8.7 5 13 11 5.7 118 182
18 Sal Maglie BRO/NYY SP 40 0.0% 9.8 8 13 9 1.5 116 184
19 Bob Rush CHC SP 31 0.0% 9.5 6 13 13 5.1 110 190
20 Curt Simmons PHI SP 28 0.0% 12.3 12 15 8 7.1 108 192
21 Gerry Staley CHW RP 36 0.0% 6.0 5 8 5 1.9 107 193
22 Jim Hearn PHI RP 36 0.0% 6.5 5 5 14 2.3 104 196
23 Ned Garver KCA SP 31 0.0% 5.0 6 0 12 5.1 103 197
24 Ellis Kinder CHW RP 42 0.0% 2.5 0 5 5 1.5 102 198
25 Russ Meyer BOS RP 33 0.0% 1.3 0 1 6 3.8 93 207
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