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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1954 1953 1952 Yrs Career Needed
1 Robin Roberts PHI SP 27 57.5% 23.8 23 23 28 7.3 137 163
2 Bob Feller CLE SP 35 27.7% 11.3 13 10 9 2.6 262 38
3 Carl Erskine BRO SP 27 13.7% 18.0 18 20 14 7.5 89 211
4 Warren Spahn* MIL SP 33 12.5% 20.5 21 23 14 4.1 166 134
5 Bob Lemon CLE SP 33 10.5% 22.2 23 21 22 3.7 163 137
6 Early Wynn* CLE SP 34 9.9% 21.0 23 17 23 3.3 184 116
7 Curt Simmons PHI SP 25 7.7% 14.7 14 16 14 8.9 73 227
8 Johnny Antonelli NYG SP 24 6.9% 15.8 21 12 9.5 38 262
9 Mike Garcia CLE SP 30 5.0% 19.2 19 18 22 5.6 104 196
10 Bob Grim NYY SP 24 0.4% 15.0 20 9.4 20 280
11 Hal Newhouser CLE RP 33 0.0% 5.3 7 0 9 4.1 207 93
12 Allie Reynolds NYY SP 37 0.0% 14.2 13 13 20 1.6 182 118
13 Eddie Lopat NYY SP 36 0.0% 13.0 12 16 10 2.4 159 141
14 Virgil Trucks CHW SP 37 0.0% 17.0 19 20 5 1.7 147 153
15 Joe Dobson BOS RP 37 0.0% 4.0 0 5 14 1.5 137 163
16 Johnny Sain NYY RP 36 0.0% 9.5 6 14 11 1.9 137 163
17 Murry Dickson PHI SP 37 0.0% 10.7 10 10 14 1.5 130 170
18 Vic Raschi STL SP 35 0.0% 11.0 8 13 16 2.8 128 172
19 Preacher Roe BRO SP 38 0.0% 7.0 3 11 11 1.5 127 173
20 Howie Pollet CHC SP 33 0.0% 7.2 8 6 7 4.2 124 176
21 Larry Jansen NYG SP 33 0.0% 6.5 2 11 11 3.6 120 180
22 Ken Raffensberger CIN RP 36 0.0% 5.2 0 7 17 1.9 119 181
23 Mel Parnell BOS SP 32 0.0% 10.5 3 21 12 4.8 114 186
24 Sid Hudson BOS RP 39 0.0% 5.2 3 6 10 1.5 104 196
25 Steve Gromek DET SP 34 0.0% 13.5 18 7 7 3.3 102 198
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