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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1952 1951 1950 Yrs Career Needed
1 Robin Roberts PHI SP 25 49.5% 24.3 28 21 20 8.5 91 209
2 Bob Feller CLE SP 33 40.4% 14.5 9 22 16 3.8 239 61
3 Bobby Shantz PHA SP 26 12.9% 19.3 24 18 8 7.9 56 244
4 Early Wynn* CLE SP 32 11.2% 21.2 23 20 18 4.5 144 156
5 Mike Garcia CLE SP 28 7.1% 19.5 22 20 11 6.8 67 233
6 Bob Lemon CLE SP 31 5.9% 20.5 22 17 23 4.9 119 181
7 Warren Spahn* BSN SP 31 3.0% 17.8 14 22 21 5.3 122 178
8 Billy Pierce CHW SP 25 1.7% 14.5 15 15 12 8.9 52 248
9 Bobo Newsom WAS/PHA SP 44 0.0% 3.0 4 1.5 209 91
10 Hal Newhouser DET SP 31 0.0% 9.0 9 6 15 5.3 200 100
11 Dutch Leonard CHC RP 43 0.0% 5.2 2 10 5 1.5 189 111
12 Dizzy Trout DET/BOS SP 37 0.0% 10.2 10 9 13 1.8 170 130
13 Allie Reynolds NYY SP 35 0.0% 18.3 20 17 16 2.8 156 144
14 Joe Dobson CHW SP 35 0.0% 11.8 14 7 15 2.7 132 168
15 Eddie Lopat NYY SP 34 0.0% 15.0 10 21 18 3.6 131 169
16 Harry Brecheen STL SP 37 0.0% 7.5 7 8 8 1.5 128 172
17 Johnny Sain NYY SP 34 0.0% 11.2 11 7 20 3.1 117 183
18 Preacher Roe BRO SP 36 0.0% 16.0 11 22 19 2.2 113 187
19 Ken Raffensberger CIN SP 34 0.0% 16.2 17 16 14 3.1 112 188
20 Murry Dickson PIT SP 35 0.0% 15.3 14 20 10 2.5 110 190
21 Howie Pollet PIT SP 31 0.0% 7.8 7 6 14 5.4 110 190
22 Max Lanier NYG SP 36 0.0% 9.0 7 11 11 1.9 108 192
23 Virgil Trucks DET SP 35 0.0% 7.3 5 13 3 2.9 108 192
24 Larry Jansen NYG SP 31 0.0% 16.3 11 23 19 4.8 107 193
25 Vic Raschi NYY SP 33 0.0% 18.5 16 21 21 4.0 107 193
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