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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1952 1951 1950 Yrs Career Needed
1 Ralph Kiner PIT LF 29 71.3% 40.3 37 42 47 6.2 294 206
2 Gil Hodges BRO 1B 28 17.8% 34.7 32 40 32 7.1 139 361
3 Yogi Berra NYY C 27 10.1% 28.7 30 27 28 7.7 132 368
4 Duke Snider BRO CF 25 5.3% 25.3 21 29 31 8.5 109 391
5 Bobby Thomson NYG 3B 28 2.8% 26.8 24 32 25 6.8 155 345
6 Johnny Mize NYY 1B 39 0.0% 9.5 4 10 25 1.5 355 145
7 Ted Williams* BOS LF 33 0.0% 15.2 1 30 28 3.7 324 176
8 Bill Nicholson PHI RF 37 0.0% 6.2 6 8 3 1.5 233 267
9 Vern Stephens BOS SS 31 0.0% 14.2 7 17 30 5.0 231 269
10 Stan Musial STL CF 31 0.0% 25.8 21 32 28 5.0 227 273
11 Charlie Keller NYY LF 35 0.0% 1.3 0 3 2 2.5 189 311
12 Hank Sauer CHC LF 35 0.0% 33.8 37 30 32 2.8 172 328
13 Sid Gordon BSN LF 34 0.0% 26.7 25 29 27 3.1 164 336
14 Andy Pafko BRO LF 31 0.0% 25.5 19 30 36 5.2 163 337
15 Bob Elliott NYG LF 35 0.0% 14.0 10 15 24 2.6 161 339
16 Walker Cooper BSN C 37 0.0% 13.3 10 18 14 1.5 151 349
17 Del Ennis PHI LF 27 0.0% 20.2 20 15 31 7.8 150 350
18 Enos Slaughter STL RF 36 0.0% 8.5 11 4 10 2.3 140 360
19 Eddie Robinson CHW 1B 31 0.0% 24.2 22 29 21 5.1 123 377
20 Eddie Joost PHA SS 36 0.0% 19.3 20 19 18 2.4 122 378
21 Andy Seminick CIN C 31 0.0% 14.7 14 11 24 4.9 119 381
22 Roy Campanella BRO C 30 0.0% 27.2 22 33 31 5.6 117 383
23 Larry Doby CLE CF 28 0.0% 26.8 32 20 25 6.9 115 385
24 Willard Marshall BSN/CIN RF 31 0.0% 9.5 10 11 5 5.2 112 388
25 Vic Wertz DET/SLB RF 27 0.0% 25.0 23 27 27 7.6 110 390
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