Choose Metric:

Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1949 1948 1947 Yrs Career Needed
1 Ralph Kiner PIT LF 26 67.6% 48.8 54 40 51 8.0 168 332
2 Ted Williams* BOS LF 30 32.3% 35.2 43 25 32 5.5 265 235
3 Vern Stephens BOS SS 28 16.5% 31.7 39 29 15 6.8 177 323
4 Stan Musial STL RF 28 16.0% 34.2 36 39 19 6.8 146 354
5 Del Ennis PHI LF 24 6.3% 24.5 25 30 12 9.6 84 416
6 Joe DiMaggio NYY CF 34 0.0% 23.3 14 39 20 3.2 317 183
7 Johnny Mize NYG/NYY 1B 36 0.0% 31.3 19 40 51 2.1 316 184
8 Joe Gordon CLE 2B 34 0.0% 25.5 20 32 29 3.4 234 266
9 Bill Nicholson PHI RF 34 0.0% 16.2 11 19 26 3.3 216 284
10 Jeff Heath BSN LF 34 0.0% 15.7 9 20 27 3.4 194 306
11 Charlie Keller NYY LF 32 0.0% 5.7 3 6 13 4.3 184 316
12 Bobby Doerr BOS 2B 31 0.0% 20.8 18 27 17 5.3 183 317
13 Tommy Henrich NYY RF 36 0.0% 23.0 24 25 16 2.2 177 323
14 Ken Keltner CLE 3B 32 0.0% 16.2 8 31 11 4.4 163 337
15 Sam Chapman PHA CF 33 0.0% 18.7 24 13 14 4.1 151 349
16 Enos Slaughter STL LF 33 0.0% 11.8 13 11 10 4.1 115 385
17 Bob Elliott BSN 3B 32 0.0% 19.8 17 23 22 4.4 112 388
18 Walker Cooper NYG/CIN C 34 0.0% 21.2 20 16 35 3.3 109 391
19 Whitey Kurowski STL 3B 31 0.0% 5.2 0 2 27 5.3 106 394
20 Dixie Walker PIT RF 38 0.0% 2.7 1 2 9 1.5 105 395
21 Augie Galan NYG/PHA LF 37 0.0% 1.7 0 2 6 1.7 100 400
22 Danny Litwhiler CIN RF 32 0.0% 11.3 11 14 7 4.3 99 401
23 Stan Spence BOS/SLB CF 34 0.0% 13.2 13 12 16 3.4 95 405
24 Eddie Miller PHI 2B 32 0.0% 10.8 6 14 19 4.4 94 406
25 Ron Northey STL RF 29 0.0% 10.3 7 13 15 6.5 94 406
Page: 1 , 2 , 3 ... 22