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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1946 1945 1944 Yrs Career Needed
1 Hal Newhouser DET SP 25 75.6% 26.2 26 25 29 8.9 114 186
2 Bob Feller CLE SP 27 39.1% 19.5 26 5 7.4 138 162
3 Dave Ferriss BOS SP 24 21.1% 19.5 25 21 9.3 46 254
4 Dizzy Trout DET SP 31 5.4% 19.0 17 18 27 5.4 115 185
5 Howie Pollet STL SP 25 4.7% 15.8 21 9.0 41 259
6 Hank Wyse CHC SP 28 0.2% 17.0 14 22 16 7.0 63 237
7 Red Ruffing NYY SP 41 0.0% 4.8 5 7 1.5 270 30
8 Ted Lyons CHW SP 45 0.0% 0.8 1 1.5 260 40
9 Mel Harder CLE SP 36 0.0% 5.5 5 3 12 2.0 217 83
10 Tommy Bridges DET RP 39 0.0% 0.8 1 1 1.5 194 106
11 Bobo Newsom PHA/WAS SP 38 0.0% 11.8 14 8 13 1.5 194 106
12 Bucky Walters CIN SP 37 0.0% 12.2 10 10 23 1.7 190 110
13 Bill Lee BSN SP 36 0.0% 9.7 10 9 10 2.0 169 131
14 Claude Passeau CHC SP 37 0.0% 12.7 9 17 15 1.7 160 140
15 Curt Davis BRO RP 42 0.0% 5.0 0 10 10 1.5 158 142
16 Hal Schumacher NYG SP 35 0.0% 3.0 4 2.6 158 142
17 Dutch Leonard WAS SP 37 0.0% 13.0 10 17 14 1.6 136 164
18 Schoolboy Rowe PHI SP 36 0.0% 8.3 11 2.1 131 169
19 Mort Cooper BSN SP 33 0.0% 13.2 13 9 22 4.0 125 175
20 Harry Gumbert CIN SP 36 0.0% 5.3 6 14 2.0 118 182
21 Rip Sewell PIT SP 39 0.0% 11.2 8 11 21 1.5 118 182
22 Thornton Lee CHW SP 39 0.0% 6.5 2 15 3 1.5 113 187
23 Bill Dietrich CHW SP 36 0.0% 6.5 3 7 16 2.2 102 198
24 Spud Chandler NYY SP 38 0.0% 15.0 20 2 0 1.5 100 200
25 Kirby Higbe BRO SP 31 0.0% 12.8 17 5.3 95 205
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