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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1946 1945 1944 Yrs Career Needed
1 Mel Ott* NYG RF 37 100.0% 11.8 1 21 26 1.6 511 0
2 Ted Williams* BOS LF 27 12.1% 28.5 38 7.3 165 335
3 Hank Greenberg DET 1B 35 0.0% 33.0 44 13 2.7 306 194
4 Rudy York BOS 1B 32 0.0% 17.5 17 18 18 4.3 256 244
5 Joe DiMaggio NYY CF 31 0.0% 18.8 25 5.0 244 256
6 Hal Trosky CHW 1B 33 0.0% 2.7 2 10 3.8 228 272
7 Johnny Mize NYG 1B 33 0.0% 16.5 22 3.9 206 294
8 Bill Dickey NYY C 39 0.0% 1.5 2 1.5 202 298
9 Joe Medwick BRO LF 34 0.0% 3.2 2 3 7 3.2 201 299
10 Ernie Lombardi NYG C 38 0.0% 14.0 12 19 10 1.5 186 314
11 Charlie Keller NYY LF 29 0.0% 22.5 30 10 6.1 162 338
12 Bill Nicholson CHC RF 31 0.0% 13.8 8 13 33 5.1 160 340
13 Joe Gordon NYY 2B 31 0.0% 8.3 11 5.2 153 347
14 Pinky Higgins DET/BOS 3B 37 0.0% 2.2 2 7 1.7 140 360
15 Jeff Heath WAS/SLB LF 31 0.0% 13.8 16 15 5 5.3 138 362
16 Joe Kuhel WAS/CHW 1B 40 0.0% 3.3 4 2 4 1.5 131 369
17 Vince DiMaggio PHI/NYG CF 33 0.0% 7.8 0 19 9 3.7 125 375
18 Bobby Doerr BOS 2B 28 0.0% 13.5 18 15 7.1 121 379
19 Frank McCormick PHI 1B 35 0.0% 12.2 11 10 20 3.0 121 379
20 Frankie Hayes CLE/CHW C 31 0.0% 7.7 5 9 13 5.0 119 381
21 Chet Laabs SLB RF 34 0.0% 12.0 16 1 5 3.5 116 384
22 Ken Keltner CLE 3B 29 0.0% 9.8 13 13 6.2 113 387
23 Tommy Henrich NYY RF 33 0.0% 14.3 19 4.0 112 388
24 George McQuinn PHA 1B 36 0.0% 5.7 3 7 11 2.3 111 389
25 Sam Chapman PHA LF 30 0.0% 15.0 20 0 5.9 100 400
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