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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1944 1943 1942 Yrs Career Needed
1 Jimmie Foxx* CHC 3B 36 100.0% 1.3 0 8 2.0 527 0
2 Mel Ott* NYG RF 35 98.6% 24.0 26 18 30 2.8 489 11
3 Bill Nicholson CHC RF 29 1.5% 29.7 33 29 21 6.3 139 361
4 Al Simmons PHA LF 42 0.0% 0.3 0 1 1.5 307 193
5 Chuck Klein PHI RF 39 0.0% 0.0 0 0 0 1.5 300 200
6 Bob Johnson BOS LF 38 0.0% 13.0 17 7 13 1.5 276 224
7 Hal Trosky CHW 1B 31 0.0% 7.5 10 5.0 226 274
8 Rudy York DET 1B 30 0.0% 23.8 18 34 21 5.5 221 279
9 Joe Medwick NYG LF 32 0.0% 5.8 7 5 4 4.4 196 304
10 Harlond Clift WAS 3B 31 0.0% 2.2 0 3 7 4.9 170 330
11 Joe Cronin BOS 1B 37 0.0% 4.8 5 5 4 1.5 170 330
12 Ernie Lombardi NYG C 36 0.0% 10.2 10 10 11 2.3 155 345
13 Pinky Higgins DET 3B 35 0.0% 8.7 7 10 11 2.9 138 362
14 Joe Kuhel WAS 1B 38 0.0% 4.3 4 5 4 1.5 125 375
15 Gee Walker CIN CF 36 0.0% 4.3 5 3 5 2.2 122 378
16 Paul Waner BRO/NYY RF 41 0.0% 0.5 0 1 1 1.5 113 387
17 Jeff Heath CLE LF 29 0.0% 10.2 5 18 10 6.4 107 393
18 Vince DiMaggio PIT CF 31 0.0% 12.0 9 15 15 4.9 106 394
19 Frankie Hayes PHA C 29 0.0% 9.8 13 5 2 6.2 105 395
20 Bobby Doerr BOS 2B 26 0.0% 15.3 15 16 15 8.3 103 397
21 George McQuinn SLB 1B 34 0.0% 11.5 11 12 12 3.5 101 399
22 Ken Keltner CLE 3B 27 0.0% 9.8 13 4 6 7.4 100 400
23 Frank McCormick CIN 1B 33 0.0% 15.0 20 8 13 4.2 100 400
24 Chet Laabs SLB LF 32 0.0% 12.7 5 17 27 4.7 99 401
25 Ival Goodman CHC LF 35 0.0% 1.5 1 3 0 2.4 95 405
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