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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1938 1937 1936 Yrs Career Needed
1 Wes Ferrell WAS/NYY SP 30 31.1% 15.5 15 14 20 5.8 190 110
2 Lefty Grove* BOS SP 38 30.2% 15.5 14 17 17 1.5 271 29
3 Red Ruffing NYY SP 33 28.6% 20.5 21 20 20 4.1 193 107
4 Lefty Gomez NYY SP 29 27.2% 18.2 18 21 13 6.2 153 147
5 Mel Harder CLE SP 28 19.5% 16.0 17 15 15 6.8 144 156
6 Bill Lee CHC SP 28 9.5% 18.7 22 14 18 6.8 87 213
7 Bob Feller CLE SP 19 7.9% 12.8 17 9 5 12.2 31 269
8 Lon Warneke STL SP 29 7.8% 15.2 13 18 16 6.4 131 169
9 Carl Hubbell NYG SP 35 7.1% 18.2 13 22 26 3.0 205 95
10 Dizzy Dean CHC SP 28 1.6% 11.8 7 13 24 6.9 141 159
11 Waite Hoyt BRO RP 38 0.0% 3.8 0 8 7 1.5 237 63
12 Earl Whitehill CLE SP 39 0.0% 9.5 9 8 14 1.5 214 86
13 Ted Lyons CHW SP 37 0.0% 10.2 9 12 10 1.5 207 93
14 Freddie Fitzsimmons BRO SP 36 0.0% 9.2 11 6 10 1.8 185 115
15 Charlie Root CHC SP 39 0.0% 8.8 8 13 3 1.5 183 117
16 Guy Bush STL RP 36 0.0% 3.5 0 8 5 1.9 176 124
17 Red Lucas PIT SP 36 0.0% 8.2 6 8 15 2.3 157 143
18 Larry French CHC SP 30 0.0% 13.3 10 16 18 5.6 148 152
19 Willis Hudlin CLE SP 32 0.0% 8.2 8 12 1 4.7 146 154
20 Bump Hadley NYY SP 33 0.0% 10.5 9 11 14 3.6 141 159
21 Tommy Bridges DET SP 31 0.0% 15.3 13 15 23 5.1 133 167
22 Paul Derringer CIN SP 31 0.0% 17.0 21 10 19 5.0 123 177
23 Ed Brandt PIT SP 33 0.0% 8.0 5 11 11 4.0 121 179
24 Danny MacFayden BSN SP 33 0.0% 14.5 14 14 17 4.2 117 183
25 Fred Frankhouse BRO SP 34 0.0% 7.0 3 10 13 3.5 106 194
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