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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1938 1937 1936 Yrs Career Needed
1 Lou Gehrig NYY 1B 35 99.4% 35.0 29 37 49 3.0 493 7
2 Jimmie Foxx* BOS 1B 30 95.2% 43.8 50 36 41 5.6 429 71
3 Mel Ott* NYG 3B 29 86.7% 33.8 36 31 33 6.4 342 158
4 Hank Greenberg DET 1B 27 49.8% 43.5 58 40 1 7.5 173 327
5 Joe DiMaggio NYY CF 23 40.6% 36.2 32 46 29 9.8 107 393
6 Hal Trosky CLE 1B 25 17.9% 27.2 19 32 42 8.6 155 345
7 Harlond Clift SLB 3B 25 14.8% 30.0 34 29 20 8.5 108 392
8 Rudy York DET C 24 9.2% 28.2 33 35 9.1 68 432
9 Joe Medwick STL LF 26 1.9% 23.8 21 31 18 8.0 131 369
10 Johnny Mize STL 1B 25 0.8% 25.0 27 25 19 8.7 71 429
11 Al Simmons WAS LF 36 0.0% 15.8 21 8 13 2.3 298 202
12 Chuck Klein PHI RF 33 0.0% 13.2 8 15 25 3.8 280 220
13 Goose Goslin WAS LF 37 0.0% 6.3 2 4 24 1.5 248 252
14 Wally Berger NYG/CIN LF 32 0.0% 17.8 16 17 25 4.4 227 273
15 Earl Averill CLE CF 36 0.0% 18.7 14 21 28 2.3 225 275
16 Gabby Hartnett CHC C 37 0.0% 10.2 10 12 7 1.5 218 282
17 Tony Lazzeri CHC SS 34 0.0% 9.5 5 14 14 3.3 174 326
18 Bob Johnson PHA CF 32 0.0% 27.5 30 25 25 4.4 163 337
19 Bill Dickey NYY C 31 0.0% 26.8 27 29 22 5.4 154 346
20 Charlie Gehringer DET 2B 35 0.0% 17.2 20 14 15 2.9 154 346
21 Ripper Collins CHC 1B 34 0.0% 14.0 13 16 13 3.4 135 365
22 Kiki Cuyler BRO RF 39 0.0% 2.2 2 0 7 1.5 128 372
23 Dolph Camilli BRO 1B 31 0.0% 25.7 24 27 28 5.3 122 378
24 Heinie Manush BRO/PIT RF 36 0.0% 1.3 0 4 0 1.8 110 390
25 Jimmy Dykes CHW 2B 41 0.0% 2.5 2 1 7 1.5 108 392
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