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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1935 1934 1933 Yrs Career Needed
1 Babe Ruth* BSN LF 40 100.0% 16.0 6 22 34 1.5 714 0
2 Lou Gehrig NYY 1B 32 90.4% 36.7 30 49 32 4.8 378 122
3 Jimmie Foxx* PHA 1B 27 86.2% 40.7 36 44 48 7.4 302 198
4 Mel Ott* NYG RF 26 48.6% 31.0 31 35 23 8.2 242 258
5 Hank Greenberg DET 1B 24 12.6% 28.7 36 26 12 9.3 74 426
6 Wally Berger BSN CF 29 11.2% 32.8 34 34 27 6.2 169 331
7 Hal Trosky CLE 1B 22 9.1% 24.8 26 35 1 10.4 62 438
8 Rogers Hornsby SLB 1B 39 0.0% 0.8 0 1 3 1.5 300 200
9 Al Simmons CHW CF 33 0.0% 16.3 16 18 14 4.1 256 244
10 Chuck Klein CHC RF 30 0.0% 21.8 21 20 28 5.6 232 268
11 Goose Goslin DET LF 34 0.0% 10.5 9 13 10 3.2 218 282
12 Jim Bottomley CIN 1B 35 0.0% 6.3 1 11 13 2.9 206 294
13 Gabby Hartnett CHC C 34 0.0% 16.5 13 22 16 3.3 189 311
14 Babe Herman PIT/CIN LF 32 0.0% 12.3 10 14 16 4.8 167 333
15 Earl Averill CLE CF 33 0.0% 21.7 19 31 11 4.1 162 338
16 Chick Hafey CIN CF 32 0.0% 7.7 1 18 7 4.6 155 345
17 Bill Terry NYG 1B 36 0.0% 6.7 6 8 6 2.0 152 348
18 Tony Lazzeri NYY 2B 31 0.0% 14.2 13 14 18 5.1 141 359
19 Travis Jackson NYG 3B 31 0.0% 9.8 9 16 0 5.0 128 372
20 Kiki Cuyler CHC/CIN CF 36 0.0% 5.8 6 6 5 1.9 119 381
21 Mickey Cochrane DET C 32 0.0% 5.7 5 2 15 4.7 115 385
22 Bing Miller BOS RF 40 0.0% 2.3 3 1 2 1.5 115 385
23 Heinie Manush WAS LF 33 0.0% 6.5 4 11 5 3.6 106 394
24 Charlie Gehringer DET 2B 32 0.0% 15.2 19 11 12 4.7 105 395
25 Frankie Frisch STL 2B 37 0.0% 2.2 1 3 4 1.5 104 396
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