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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1928 1927 1926 Yrs Career Needed
1 Pete Alexander* STL SP 41 100.0% 17.0 16 21 12 1.5 364 0
2 Waite Hoyt NYY SP 28 49.6% 21.5 23 22 16 6.7 155 145
3 Burleigh Grimes PIT SP 34 19.0% 20.8 25 19 12 3.1 207 93
4 Ted Lyons CHW SP 27 13.7% 17.8 15 22 18 7.5 90 210
5 Lefty Grove* PHA SP 28 12.7% 20.8 24 20 13 7.0 67 233
6 Freddie Fitzsimmons NYG SP 26 8.1% 18.0 20 17 14 7.8 57 243
7 Herb Pennock NYY SP 34 7.7% 18.7 17 19 23 3.4 191 109
8 Bill Sherdel STL SP 31 7.4% 18.8 21 17 16 4.9 140 160
9 Willis Hudlin CLE SP 22 2.9% 13.2 14 18 1 10.7 33 267
10 George Uhle CLE SP 29 2.8% 13.2 12 8 27 6.1 147 153
11 Larry Benton NYG SP 30 2.5% 20.5 25 17 14 5.6 80 220
12 Eppa Rixey CIN SP 37 0.0% 15.8 19 12 14 1.7 232 68
13 Jack Quinn PHA SP 45 0.0% 15.7 18 15 10 1.5 219 81
14 Red Faber CHW SP 39 0.0% 10.3 13 4 15 1.5 218 82
15 Stan Coveleski NYY SP 38 0.0% 5.5 5 2 14 1.5 215 85
16 Carl Mays CIN SP 36 0.0% 6.2 4 3 19 2.0 200 100
17 Bullet Joe Bush PHA RP 35 0.0% 2.8 2 2 7 2.6 195 105
18 Lee Meadows PIT RP 33 0.0% 10.2 1 19 20 3.6 188 112
19 Urban Shocker NYY RP 37 0.0% 9.2 0 18 19 1.5 187 113
20 Art Nehf CHC SP 35 0.0% 9.8 13 4 0 2.5 176 124
21 Bill Doak BRO SP 37 0.0% 5.2 3 11 1.5 168 132
22 Sad Sam Jones WAS SP 35 0.0% 12.8 17 8 9 2.4 160 140
23 Howard Ehmke PHA SP 34 0.0% 11.0 9 12 15 3.5 159 141
24 Dolf Luque CIN SP 37 0.0% 12.0 11 13 13 1.5 149 151
25 Eddie Rommel PHA SP 30 0.0% 12.0 13 11 11 5.5 142 158
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