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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1928 1927 1926 Yrs Career Needed
1 Babe Ruth* NYY RF 33 98.3% 54.8 54 60 47 4.0 470 30
2 Lou Gehrig NYY 1B 25 23.5% 31.8 27 47 16 9.0 111 389
3 Hack Wilson CHC CF 28 1.2% 29.0 31 30 21 7.1 98 402
4 Cy Williams PHI RF 40 0.0% 19.0 12 30 18 1.5 246 254
5 Rogers Hornsby BSN 2B 32 0.0% 21.0 21 26 11 4.7 238 262
6 Ken Williams BOS LF 38 0.0% 12.5 8 17 17 1.5 193 307
7 Harry Heilmann DET RF 33 0.0% 13.2 14 14 9 3.7 149 351
8 Bob Meusel NYY LF 31 0.0% 10.2 11 8 12 4.8 136 364
9 High Pockets Kelly CIN 1B 32 0.0% 5.3 3 5 13 4.3 131 369
10 Jim Bottomley STL 1B 28 0.0% 25.0 31 19 19 7.1 117 383
11 Ty Cobb PHA RF 41 0.0% 2.8 1 5 4 1.5 117 383
12 Tris Speaker PHA CF 40 0.0% 3.3 3 2 7 1.5 117 383
13 George Sisler WAS/BSN 1B 35 0.0% 4.8 4 5 7 2.8 97 403
14 Goose Goslin WAS LF 27 0.0% 15.7 17 13 17 7.4 90 410
15 Wally Pipp CIN 1B 35 0.0% 2.7 2 2 6 2.8 90 410
16 George Harper NYG/STL RF 36 0.0% 16.0 19 16 7 2.4 81 419
17 Al Simmons PHA LF 26 0.0% 15.7 15 15 19 8.3 81 419
18 Gabby Hartnett CHC C 27 0.0% 11.7 14 10 8 7.5 80 420
19 Joe Hauser PHA 1B 29 0.0% 12.0 16 8 6.3 77 423
20 Bing Miller PHA RF 33 0.0% 6.7 8 5 6 3.7 77 423
21 Frankie Frisch STL 2B 30 0.0% 9.2 10 10 5 5.5 74 426
22 Marty McManus DET 3B 28 0.0% 8.5 8 9 9 7.0 73 427
23 George Burns CLE/NYY 1B 35 0.0% 4.2 5 3 4 2.8 71 429
24 Max Carey BRO CF 38 0.0% 1.5 2 1 0 1.5 70 430
25 Travis Jackson NYG SS 24 0.0% 13.0 14 14 8 9.2 60 440
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