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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1923 1922 1921 Yrs Career Needed
1 Babe Ruth* NYY RF 28 61.6% 42.0 41 35 59 7.0 238 262
2 Rogers Hornsby STL 2B 27 2.1% 26.0 17 42 21 7.7 116 384
3 Cy Williams PHI CF 35 0.0% 32.2 41 26 18 2.7 149 351
4 Tillie Walker PHA LF 35 0.0% 17.2 2 37 23 2.5 118 382
5 Ken Williams SLB LF 33 0.0% 31.5 29 39 24 4.2 108 392
6 Zack Wheat BRO LF 35 0.0% 11.7 8 16 14 2.9 98 402
7 Ty Cobb DET CF 36 0.0% 6.3 6 4 12 2.1 91 409
8 Harry Heilmann DET RF 28 0.0% 19.2 18 21 19 6.7 89 411
9 Tris Speaker CLE CF 35 0.0% 12.8 17 11 3 2.9 84 416
10 Irish Meusel NYG LF 30 0.0% 17.2 19 16 14 6.0 72 428
11 High Pockets Kelly NYG 1B 27 0.0% 17.5 16 17 23 7.3 69 431
12 Wally Pipp NYY 1B 30 0.0% 7.3 6 9 8 5.8 68 432
13 Jack Fournier BRO 1B 33 0.0% 17.0 22 10 16 3.7 66 434
14 Elmer Smith NYY RF 30 0.0% 8.5 7 7 16 5.5 62 438
15 Bob Meusel NYY LF 26 0.0% 13.8 9 16 24 7.8 60 440
16 Harry Hooper CHW RF 35 0.0% 10.0 10 11 8 2.5 59 441
17 Bobby Veach DET LF 35 0.0% 6.7 2 9 16 3.0 59 441
18 Jack Tobin SLB RF 31 0.0% 12.2 13 13 8 5.3 57 443
19 Jake Daubert CIN 1B 39 0.0% 5.3 2 12 2 1.5 55 445
20 Casey Stengel NYG CF 32 0.0% 4.8 5 7 0 4.2 55 445
21 Max Carey PIT CF 33 0.0% 7.5 6 10 7 3.9 54 446
22 George Burns BOS 1B 30 0.0% 7.5 7 12 0 5.8 49 451
23 Tommy Griffith BRO RF 33 0.0% 7.3 8 4 12 3.8 42 458
24 Bing Miller PHA LF 28 0.0% 14.5 12 21 9 6.7 42 458
25 Del Pratt DET 2B 35 0.0% 2.8 0 6 5 2.7 42 458
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