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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1917 1916 1915 Yrs Career Needed
1 Eddie Plank* SLB SP 41 100.0% 11.3 5 16 21 1.5 326 0
2 Walter Johnson* WAS SP 29 94.4% 24.3 23 25 27 6.2 254 46
3 Pete Alexander* PHI SP 30 89.8% 31.2 30 33 31 5.8 190 110
4 Babe Ruth BOS SP 22 52.8% 22.7 24 23 18 10.6 67 233
5 Hippo Vaughn CHC SP 29 20.9% 20.5 23 17 20 6.5 113 187
6 Pete Schneider CIN SP 21 17.9% 15.7 20 10 14 10.9 49 251
7 Dutch Leonard BOS SP 25 17.2% 16.5 16 18 15 8.9 82 218
8 Hooks Dauss DET SP 27 16.4% 18.8 17 19 24 7.3 92 208
9 Eppa Rixey PHI SP 26 12.0% 17.2 16 22 11 8.3 70 230
10 Carl Mays BOS SP 25 11.1% 18.0 22 18 6 8.6 46 254
11 Pol Perritt NYG SP 25 11.0% 16.5 17 18 12 8.5 70 230
12 Eddie Cicotte CHW SP 33 7.5% 21.2 28 15 13 4.2 146 154
13 Bob Shawkey NYY SP 26 6.4% 16.2 13 24 10 8.1 69 231
14 Fred Toney CIN SP 28 5.6% 19.5 24 14 17 6.9 59 241
15 Lee Meadows STL SP 22 3.7% 13.7 15 12 13 10.2 40 260
16 Rube Marquard BRO SP 30 3.5% 15.7 19 13 11 5.6 137 163
17 Rube Benton NYG SP 27 2.7% 14.3 15 16 9 7.8 88 212
18 Lefty Tyler BSN SP 27 1.5% 14.3 14 17 10 7.5 92 208
19 Dave Davenport SLB SP 27 1.3% 16.2 17 12 22 7.6 61 239
20 Ernie Shore BOS SP 26 1.1% 15.0 13 16 19 8.2 58 242
21 Red Faber CHW SP 28 0.9% 17.7 16 17 24 6.7 67 233
22 Bill Doak STL SP 26 0.9% 14.7 16 12 16 8.1 65 235
23 Chief Bender PHI SP 33 0.0% 7.0 8 7 4 4.1 212 88
24 Ed Walsh BSN SP 36 0.0% 0.5 0 0 3 2.3 195 105
25 Ed Reulbach BSN SP 34 0.0% 5.8 0 7 21 3.3 182 118
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