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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1908 1907 1906 Yrs Career Needed
1 Bill Dahlen BSN SS 38 0.0% 2.3 3 0 1 1.5 82 418
2 George Davis CHW 2B 37 0.0% 0.3 0 1 0 1.5 73 427
3 Nap Lajoie CLE 2B 33 0.0% 1.7 2 2 0 3.7 72 428
4 Harry Davis PHA 1B 34 0.0% 7.2 5 8 12 3.0 69 431
5 Jimmy Collins PHA 3B 38 0.0% 0.2 0 0 1 1.5 65 435
6 Joe Kelley BSN LF 36 0.0% 1.5 2 1 2.1 65 435
7 Honus Wagner PIT SS 34 0.0% 7.5 10 6 2 3.4 65 435
8 Charlie Hickman CLE RF 32 0.0% 2.8 2 1 9 4.7 59 441
9 Fred Clarke PIT LF 35 0.0% 1.8 2 2 1 2.6 57 443
10 Sam Crawford DET CF 28 0.0% 5.3 7 4 2 7.1 52 448
11 Socks Seybold PHA RF 37 0.0% 2.5 0 5 5 1.5 51 449
12 Cy Seymour NYG CF 35 0.0% 4.8 5 3 8 2.7 50 450
13 John Anderson CHW RF 34 0.0% 0.5 0 0 3 3.3 49 451
14 Jimmy Williams SLB 2B 31 0.0% 3.2 4 2 3 5.1 49 451
15 Elmer Flick CLE RF 32 0.0% 1.2 0 3 1 4.5 47 453
16 Mike Donlin NYG RF 30 0.0% 4.5 6 1 5.9 45 455
17 Deacon McGuire BOS/CLE 1B 44 0.0% 0.3 0 1 0 1.5 45 455
18 Jimmy Sheckard CHC LF 29 0.0% 1.5 2 1 1 6.2 43 457
19 Dan McGann BSN 1B 36 0.0% 1.7 2 2 0 1.8 42 458
20 Harry Lumley BRO RF 27 0.0% 6.5 4 9 9 7.3 38 462
21 Ginger Beaumont BSN CF 31 0.0% 2.7 2 4 2 4.8 37 463
22 Hobe Ferris SLB 3B 33 0.0% 2.7 2 4 2 3.9 36 464
23 Tommy Leach PIT 3B 30 0.0% 4.0 5 4 1 5.6 35 465
24 Bobby Wallace SLB SS 34 0.0% 0.8 1 0 2 3.2 34 466
25 Bill Bradley CLE 3B 30 0.0% 0.8 1 0 2 5.8 33 467
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