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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1897 1896 1895 Yrs Career Needed
1 Kid Nichols* BSN SP 27 94.5% 29.8 31 30 26 7.3 245 55
2 Cy Young* CLE SP 30 90.5% 25.7 21 28 35 5.8 216 84
3 Amos Rusie NYG SP 26 89.7% 21.0 28 23 8.3 225 75
4 Jack Stivetts BSN SP 29 54.2% 15.7 11 22 17 6.4 203 97
5 Pink Hawley PIT SP 24 50.0% 21.5 18 22 31 9.3 101 199
6 Frank Killen PIT SP 26 46.1% 19.3 17 30 5 8.0 138 162
7 Win Mercer WAS SP 23 42.8% 20.5 20 25 13 10.2 75 225
8 Frank Dwyer CIN SP 29 42.0% 20.0 18 24 18 6.4 160 140
9 Jack Taylor PHI SP 24 38.8% 19.0 16 20 26 9.5 96 204
10 Bill Hoffer BAL SP 26 38.4% 24.5 22 25 31 8.0 78 222
11 Clark Griffith CHC SP 27 36.2% 22.5 21 23 26 7.4 106 194
12 Ted Breitenstein CIN SP 28 30.8% 20.7 23 18 19 7.2 117 183
13 Nig Cuppy CLE SP 27 24.9% 17.7 10 25 26 7.2 130 170
14 Joe Corbett BAL SP 21 22.9% 18.0 24 3 0 11.1 27 273
15 Jouett Meekin NYG SP 30 20.5% 21.3 20 26 16 5.8 125 175
16 Fred Klobedanz BSN SP 26 10.9% 19.5 26 6 8.4 32 268
17 Brickyard Kennedy BRO SP 29 9.7% 17.8 18 17 19 6.2 116 184
18 Jerry Nops BAL SP 22 8.4% 15.0 20 3 10.8 23 277
19 Billy Rhines CIN SP 28 6.8% 16.3 21 8 19 7.0 98 202
20 Ted Lewis BSN SP 24 2.6% 15.8 21 1 9.3 22 278
21 Arlie Pond BAL SP 24 0.3% 14.3 18 16 0 9.3 34 266
22 Silver King WAS SP 29 0.0% 6.3 6 10 6.3 203 97
23 Adonis Terry CHC SP 32 0.0% 8.5 0 15 21 4.3 197 103
24 Bill Hutchinson STL SP 37 0.0% 2.7 1 13 1.5 183 117
25 Sadie McMahon BRO SP 29 0.0% 5.3 0 11 10 6.1 173 127
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