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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins
Bill James' Favorite Toy
Rk | Player | Team | Pos | Age | Prob | EstLvl | 1893 | 1892 | 1891 | Yrs | Career | Needed |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Tim Keefe* | PHI | SP | 36 | 100.0% | 12.2 | 10 | 19 | 5 | 2.1 | 342 | 0 |
2 | John Clarkson* | CLE | SP | 32 | 100.0% | 21.8 | 16 | 25 | 33 | 4.8 | 320 | 0 |
3 | Tony Mullane | CIN/BAL | SP | 34 | 96.5% | 19.8 | 18 | 21 | 23 | 3.3 | 277 | 23 |
4 | Gus Weyhing | PHI | SP | 26 | 89.5% | 27.3 | 23 | 32 | 31 | 7.9 | 200 | 100 |
5 | Amos Rusie | NYG | SP | 22 | 85.8% | 32.3 | 33 | 31 | 33 | 10.7 | 138 | 162 |
6 | Kid Nichols* | BSN | SP | 23 | 85.4% | 33.7 | 34 | 35 | 30 | 9.7 | 126 | 174 |
7 | Cy Young* | CLE | SP | 26 | 83.8% | 33.5 | 34 | 36 | 27 | 8.2 | 106 | 194 |
8 | Jack Stivetts | BSN | SP | 25 | 82.4% | 27.2 | 20 | 35 | 33 | 8.8 | 127 | 173 |
9 | Frank Killen | PIT | SP | 22 | 78.6% | 28.8 | 36 | 29 | 7 | 10.4 | 72 | 228 |
10 | Sadie McMahon | BAL | SP | 25 | 66.7% | 23.7 | 23 | 19 | 35 | 8.5 | 127 | 173 |
11 | Silver King | NYG/CIN | SP | 25 | 58.0% | 14.0 | 8 | 23 | 14 | 8.7 | 187 | 113 |
12 | Ice Box Chamberlain | CIN | SP | 25 | 52.6% | 18.0 | 16 | 19 | 22 | 8.6 | 149 | 151 |
13 | Kid Gleason | STL | SP | 26 | 43.5% | 21.2 | 21 | 20 | 24 | 8.0 | 119 | 181 |
14 | Harry Staley | BSN | SP | 26 | 39.4% | 20.3 | 18 | 22 | 24 | 8.0 | 118 | 182 |
15 | Kid Carsey | PHI | SP | 20 | 37.6% | 18.7 | 20 | 19 | 14 | 11.6 | 53 | 247 |
16 | Mark Baldwin | PIT/NYG | SP | 29 | 37.5% | 20.3 | 16 | 26 | 22 | 6.2 | 156 | 144 |
17 | Ed Stein | BRO | SP | 23 | 31.2% | 19.7 | 19 | 27 | 7 | 9.7 | 65 | 235 |
18 | Frank Dwyer | CIN | SP | 25 | 27.4% | 19.2 | 18 | 21 | 19 | 8.8 | 81 | 219 |
19 | George Haddock | BRO | SP | 26 | 24.8% | 19.3 | 8 | 29 | 34 | 8.1 | 91 | 209 |
20 | Bill Hutchinson | CHC | SP | 33 | 23.1% | 27.3 | 16 | 36 | 44 | 3.9 | 155 | 145 |
21 | Red Ehret | PIT | SP | 24 | 19.8% | 16.5 | 18 | 16 | 13 | 9.1 | 85 | 215 |
22 | Nig Cuppy | CLE | SP | 23 | 17.2% | 17.8 | 17 | 28 | 9.6 | 45 | 255 | |
23 | Ad Gumbert | PIT | SP | 25 | 14.5% | 15.7 | 11 | 22 | 17 | 8.6 | 92 | 208 |
24 | Scott Stratton | LOU | SP | 23 | 13.8% | 14.0 | 12 | 21 | 6 | 9.8 | 86 | 214 |
25 | Willie McGill | CHC | SP | 19 | 12.3% | 12.8 | 17 | 1 | 21 | 12.2 | 50 | 250 |