1893 Season

Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy

Rk	Player	Team	Pos	Age	Prob	EstLvl	1893	1892	1891	Yrs	Career	Needed
1	Tim Keefe*	PHI	SP	36	100.0%	12.2	10	19	5	2.1	342	0
2	John Clarkson*	CLE	SP	32	100.0%	21.8	16	25	33	4.8	320	0
3	Tony Mullane	CIN/BAL	SP	34	96.5%	19.8	18	21	23	3.3	277	23
4	Gus Weyhing	PHI	SP	26	89.5%	27.3	23	32	31	7.9	200	100
5	Amos Rusie	NYG	SP	22	85.8%	32.3	33	31	33	10.7	138	162
6	Kid Nichols*	BSN	SP	23	85.4%	33.7	34	35	30	9.7	126	174
7	Cy Young*	CLE	SP	26	83.8%	33.5	34	36	27	8.2	106	194
8	Jack Stivetts	BSN	SP	25	82.4%	27.2	20	35	33	8.8	127	173
9	Frank Killen	PIT	SP	22	78.6%	28.8	36	29	7	10.4	72	228
10	Sadie McMahon	BAL	SP	25	66.7%	23.7	23	19	35	8.5	127	173
11	Silver King	NYG/CIN	SP	25	58.0%	14.0	8	23	14	8.7	187	113
12	Ice Box Chamberlain	CIN	SP	25	52.6%	18.0	16	19	22	8.6	149	151
13	Kid Gleason	STL	SP	26	43.5%	21.2	21	20	24	8.0	119	181
14	Harry Staley	BSN	SP	26	39.4%	20.3	18	22	24	8.0	118	182
15	Kid Carsey	PHI	SP	20	37.6%	18.7	20	19	14	11.6	53	247
16	Mark Baldwin	PIT/NYG	SP	29	37.5%	20.3	16	26	22	6.2	156	144
17	Ed Stein	BRO	SP	23	31.2%	19.7	19	27	7	9.7	65	235
18	Frank Dwyer	CIN	SP	25	27.4%	19.2	18	21	19	8.8	81	219
19	George Haddock	BRO	SP	26	24.8%	19.3	8	29	34	8.1	91	209
20	Bill Hutchinson	CHC	SP	33	23.1%	27.3	16	36	44	3.9	155	145
21	Red Ehret	PIT	SP	24	19.8%	16.5	18	16	13	9.1	85	215
22	Nig Cuppy	CLE	SP	23	17.2%	17.8	17	28		9.6	45	255
23	Ad Gumbert	PIT	SP	25	14.5%	15.7	11	22	17	8.6	92	208
24	Scott Stratton	LOU	SP	23	13.8%	14.0	12	21	6	9.8	86	214
25	Willie McGill	CHC	SP	19	12.3%	12.8	17	1	21	12.2	50	250

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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins