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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1886 1885 1884 Yrs Career Needed
1 Bobby Mathews PHA SP 34 99.2% 21.5 13 30 30 3.2 294 6
2 Jim McCormick CHC SP 29 95.1% 29.2 31 21 40 6.2 252 48
3 Pud Galvin* PIT SP 29 95.0% 27.5 29 16 46 6.3 254 46
4 Mickey Welch* NYG SP 26 93.0% 37.7 33 44 39 7.8 210 90
5 Old Hoss Radbourn* BSN SP 31 92.8% 32.7 27 28 59 5.1 220 80
6 Tim Keefe* NYG SP 29 91.7% 37.8 42 32 37 6.3 193 107
7 Ed Morris PIT SP 23 86.5% 39.2 41 39 34 9.7 114 186
8 John Clarkson* CHC SP 25 84.9% 37.3 36 53 10 9.0 100 200
9 Bob Caruthers STL SP 22 79.4% 29.5 30 40 7 10.5 77 223
10 Charlie Ferguson PHI SP 23 72.8% 27.2 30 26 21 10.1 77 223
11 Toad Ramsey LOU SP 21 69.5% 28.5 38 3 10.9 41 259
12 Guy Hecker LOU SP 30 65.9% 31.7 26 30 52 5.9 140 160
13 Tony Mullane CIN SP 27 63.2% 24.8 33 36 7.5 135 165
14 Dave Foutz STL SP 29 48.5% 34.0 41 33 15 6.1 89 211
15 Lady Baldwin DET SP 27 48.1% 31.5 42 11 1 7.7 54 246
16 Matt Kilroy BAL SP 20 46.2% 21.8 29 12.0 29 271
17 Pretzels Getzien DET SP 22 44.0% 22.5 30 12 5 10.6 47 253
18 Charlie Buffinton BSN SP 25 36.2% 18.8 7 22 48 9.0 104 196
19 Will White CIN SP 31 35.1% 12.2 1 18 34 5.0 229 71
20 Hardie Henderson BAL/BRO SP 23 34.2% 19.3 13 25 27 9.8 75 225
21 Jack Lynch NYM SP 29 27.0% 23.8 20 23 37 6.4 103 197
22 Henry Porter BRO SP 28 25.4% 25.0 27 33 3 7.2 63 237
23 Jim Whitney KCC SP 28 19.6% 15.8 12 18 23 6.8 145 155
24 Bill Stemmyer BSN SP 21 17.4% 16.5 22 1 11.3 23 277
25 Jocko Flynn CHC SP 22 17.3% 17.3 23 10.8 23 277
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