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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1886 1885 1884 Yrs Career Needed
1 Harry Stovey PHA CF 29 0.0% 9.5 7 13 10 6.3 57 443
2 Dan Brouthers DET 1B 28 0.0% 10.2 11 7 14 7.1 53 447
3 Charley Jones CIN LF 34 0.0% 5.8 6 5 7 3.5 51 449
4 Ned Williamson CHC SS 28 0.0% 8.5 6 3 27 6.8 44 456
5 Cap Anson CHC 1B 34 0.0% 10.8 10 7 21 3.5 43 457
6 Abner Dalrymple CHC LF 28 0.0% 8.8 3 11 22 6.7 40 460
7 Fred Pfeffer CHC 2B 26 0.0% 9.3 7 5 25 8.2 39 461
8 Jim O'Rourke NYG CF 35 0.0% 3.0 1 5 5 2.5 36 464
9 Paul Hines WAS CF 31 0.0% 6.8 9 1 3 5.2 35 465
10 King Kelly CHC C 28 0.0% 7.2 4 9 13 6.9 35 465
11 Fred Dunlap SLM/DET 2B 27 0.0% 6.3 7 2 13 7.7 33 467
12 John Reilly CIN 1B 27 0.0% 6.5 6 5 11 7.4 31 469
13 George Wood PHI LF 27 0.0% 5.0 4 5 8 7.4 31 469
14 Charlie Bennett DET C 31 0.0% 4.2 4 5 3 5.0 30 470
15 Jerry Denny SLM 3B 27 0.0% 6.8 9 3 6 7.6 29 471
16 Hardy Richardson DET LF 31 0.0% 8.5 11 6 6 5.3 28 472
17 Buck Ewing NYG C 26 0.0% 4.5 4 6 3 8.0 25 475
18 John Morrill BSN SS 31 0.0% 5.3 7 4 3 5.2 25 475
19 Pete Browning LOU CF 25 0.0% 4.7 2 9 4 9.0 24 476
20 George Gore CHC CF 32 0.0% 5.5 6 5 5 4.7 24 476
21 Dave Orr NYM 1B 26 0.0% 7.0 7 6 9 7.9 24 476
22 Tom Burns CHC 3B 29 0.0% 5.0 3 7 7 6.4 23 477
23 Roger Connor NYG 1B 29 0.0% 5.3 7 1 4 6.6 22 478
24 Joe Hornung BSN LF 29 0.0% 2.5 2 1 7 6.6 22 478
25 Ezra Sutton BSN LF 36 0.0% 3.3 3 4 3 1.9 21 479
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