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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1885 1884 1883 Yrs Career Needed
1 Bobby Mathews PHA SP 33 98.1% 30.0 30 30 30 3.8 281 19
2 Pud Galvin* BUF/PIT SP 28 92.9% 31.0 16 46 46 6.9 225 75
3 Old Hoss Radbourn* PRO SP 30 92.5% 41.7 28 59 48 5.7 193 107
4 Will White CIN SP 30 92.3% 27.5 18 34 43 5.6 228 72
5 Jim McCormick PRO/CHC SP 28 91.9% 28.5 21 40 28 6.8 221 79
6 Mickey Welch* NYG SP 25 90.9% 39.2 44 39 25 8.4 177 123
7 Tim Keefe* NYG SP 28 87.9% 35.2 32 37 41 6.9 151 149
8 Larry Corcoran CHC/NYG SP 25 83.5% 20.8 7 35 34 8.5 177 123
9 John Clarkson* CHC SP 24 83.5% 39.8 53 10 9.6 64 236
10 Charlie Buffinton BSN SP 24 82.0% 31.2 22 48 25 9.6 97 203
11 Ed Morris PIT SP 22 79.9% 30.8 39 34 10.3 73 227
12 Bob Caruthers STL SP 21 77.3% 30.0 40 7 11.1 47 253
13 Guy Hecker LOU SP 29 77.2% 36.7 30 52 26 6.5 114 186
14 Jim Whitney BSN SP 27 51.4% 22.8 18 23 37 7.4 133 167
15 Hardie Henderson BAL SP 22 51.2% 23.2 25 27 10 10.4 62 238
16 Charlie Sweeney SLM SP 22 40.0% 20.3 11 41 7 10.7 59 241
17 Charlie Ferguson PHI SP 22 34.4% 20.0 26 21 10.7 47 253
18 Jack Lynch NYM SP 28 33.4% 26.0 23 37 13 7.0 83 217
19 Dupee Shaw PRO SP 26 31.6% 23.2 23 30 10 8.3 63 237
20 Larry McKeon CIN SP 19 26.0% 16.0 20 18 12.4 38 262
21 Ed Daily PHI SP 22 23.4% 19.5 26 10.3 26 274
22 Henry Porter BRO SP 27 22.7% 24.8 33 3 7.8 36 264
23 Dave Foutz STL SP 28 15.9% 24.8 33 15 6.7 48 252
24 Jumbo McGinnis STL SP 31 0.0% 15.7 6 24 28 5.2 83 217
25 Stump Weidman DET SP 24 0.0% 11.7 14 4 20 9.4 71 229
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