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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1884 1883 1882 Yrs Career Needed
1 Charley Jones CIN LF 32 0.0% 6.8 7 10 4.7 40 460
2 Harry Stovey PHA 1B 27 0.0% 10.5 10 14 5 7.5 37 463
3 Dan Brouthers BUF 1B 26 0.0% 10.5 14 3 6 8.3 35 465
4 Ned Williamson CHC 3B 26 0.0% 20.3 27 2 3 8.0 35 465
5 Jim O'Rourke BUF LF 33 0.0% 3.8 5 1 2 3.7 30 470
6 Fred Pfeffer CHC 2B 24 0.0% 18.8 25 1 1 9.4 27 473
7 Cap Anson CHC 1B 32 0.0% 15.8 21 0 1 4.7 26 474
8 Abner Dalrymple CHC LF 26 0.0% 16.5 22 2 1 7.9 26 474
9 Paul Hines PRO CF 29 0.0% 3.5 3 4 4 6.4 25 475
10 Fred Dunlap SLM 2B 25 0.0% 9.8 13 4 0 8.9 24 476
11 King Kelly CHC RF 26 0.0% 9.8 13 3 1 8.1 22 478
12 George Wood DET LF 25 0.0% 6.8 8 5 7 8.6 22 478
13 Charlie Bennett DET C 29 0.0% 4.0 3 5 5 6.2 21 479
14 John Reilly CIN 1B 25 0.0% 8.5 11 9 8.6 20 480
15 Joe Hornung BSN LF 27 0.0% 6.3 7 8 1 7.8 19 481
16 Jack Burdock BSN 2B 32 0.0% 4.7 6 5 0 4.7 17 483
17 Jerry Denny PRO 3B 25 0.0% 6.0 6 8 2 8.8 17 483
18 Buck Ewing NYG C 24 0.0% 5.2 3 10 2 9.2 15 485
19 Jack Farrell PRO 2B 26 0.0% 1.8 1 3 2 7.8 15 485
20 Silver Flint CHC C 28 0.0% 6.8 9 0 4 6.7 15 485
21 Joe Start PRO 1B 41 0.0% 1.5 2 1 0 1.5 15 485
22 Deacon White BUF 3B 36 0.0% 3.8 5 0 1 2.1 15 485
23 Tom York BAL LF 33 0.0% 1.3 1 2 1 3.6 15 485
24 Roger Connor NYG 2B 27 0.0% 3.0 4 1 4 7.8 14 486
25 John Morrill BSN 1B 29 0.0% 3.8 3 6 2 6.4 14 486
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