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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1882 1881 1880 Yrs Career Needed
1 Jim O'Rourke BUF CF 31 0.0% 2.0 2 0 6 4.9 24 476
2 Dan Brouthers BUF 1B 24 0.0% 5.7 6 8 0 9.5 18 482
3 Paul Hines PRO CF 27 0.0% 3.2 4 2 3 7.6 18 482
4 Charlie Bennett DET C 27 0.0% 4.8 5 7 0 7.4 13 487
5 Harry Stovey WOR 1B 25 0.0% 4.2 5 2 6 8.7 13 487
6 Joe Start PRO 1B 39 0.0% 0.0 0 0 0 1.5 12 488
7 Tom York PRO LF 31 0.0% 1.2 1 2 0 4.8 12 488
8 Jack Farrell PRO 2B 24 0.0% 3.2 2 5 3 9.0 11 489
9 George Wright PRO SS 35 0.0% 0.0 0 0 0 2.7 11 489
10 Deacon White BUF 3B 34 0.0% 0.8 1 0 0 3.3 10 490
11 Roger Connor TRO 1B 25 0.0% 3.2 4 2 3 9.0 9 491
12 Oscar Walker STL CF 28 0.0% 5.3 7 1 7.0 9 491
13 George Wood DET LF 23 0.0% 5.3 7 2 0 9.8 9 491
14 Ned Cuthbert STL LF 37 0.0% 0.0 0 1.8 8 492
15 Orator Shafer CLE RF 30 0.0% 2.3 3 1 0 5.6 8 492
16 Pop Snyder CIN C 27 0.0% 0.8 1 0 7.4 8 492
17 Ezra Sutton BSN 3B 32 0.0% 1.5 2 0 0 4.3 8 492
18 Fred Dunlap CLE 2B 23 0.0% 1.7 0 3 4 10.1 7 493
19 Ned Hanlon DET CF 24 0.0% 3.8 5 2 0 9.1 7 493
20 Jack Burdock BSN 2B 30 0.0% 0.7 0 1 2 5.9 6 494
21 Silver Flint CHC C 26 0.0% 3.0 4 1 0 7.9 6 494
22 Curry Foley BUF RF 26 0.0% 2.3 3 1 2 8.1 6 494
23 George Gore CHC CF 28 0.0% 2.3 3 1 2 7.1 6 494
24 King Kelly CHC RF 24 0.0% 1.3 1 2 1 9.3 6 494
25 Mike Muldoon CLE 3B 24 0.0% 4.5 6 9.5 6 494
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