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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1880 1879 1878 Yrs Career Needed
1 Tommy Bond BSN SP 24 93.2% 34.0 26 43 40 9.5 221 79
2 Monte Ward PRO SP 20 86.0% 38.8 39 47 22 11.8 108 192
3 Jim McCormick CLE SP 23 81.3% 33.8 45 20 5 9.8 70 230
4 Larry Corcoran CHC SP 20 78.4% 32.3 43 11.5 43 257
5 Will White CIN SP 25 67.3% 28.3 18 43 30 8.6 93 207
6 Mickey Welch* TRO SP 20 59.3% 25.5 34 11.4 34 266
7 Pud Galvin* BUF SP 23 42.4% 22.3 20 37 9.9 61 239
8 Lee Richmond WOR SP 23 40.8% 24.0 32 1 10.1 33 267
9 Terry Larkin TRO SS 24 16.9% 15.2 0 31 29 9.3 89 211
10 Fred Goldsmith CHC SP 24 4.1% 15.8 21 2 9.5 23 277
11 George Bradley PRO SP 27 0.0% 10.8 13 13 7.2 122 178
12 Tricky Nichols WOR SP 29 0.0% 0.7 0 4 6.0 27 273
13 Curry Foley BSN SP 24 0.0% 10.5 14 9 9.3 23 277
14 Frank Hankinson CLE 3B 24 0.0% 5.5 1 15 0 9.5 16 284
15 Bill McGunnigle BUF/WOR SP 25 0.0% 4.0 2 9 8.7 11 289
16 Fred Corey WOR SP 25 0.0% 6.0 8 1 8.7 9 291
17 Blondie Purcell CIN SP 26 0.0% 2.8 3 4 8.2 7 293
18 Tim Keefe* TRO SP 23 0.0% 4.5 6 9.9 6 294
19 Tom Poorman BUF/CHC SP 22 0.0% 2.3 3 10.4 3 297
20 Denny Driscoll BUF SP 24 0.0% 0.8 1 9.2 1 299
21 Gid Gardner CLE SP 21 0.0% 0.8 1 0 11.3 1 299
22 Charlie Guth CHC SP 24 0.0% 0.8 1 9.3 1 299
23 Frank Mountain TRO SP 20 0.0% 0.8 1 11.9 1 299
24 Tom Burns CHC SS 23 0.0% 0.0 0 10.0 0 300
25 Mike Dorgan PRO RF 26 0.0% 0.0 0 0 8.0 0 300
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