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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1880 1879 1878 Yrs Career Needed
1 Charley Jones BSN LF 28 0.0% 6.0 5 9 3 7.1 23 477
2 Jim O'Rourke BSN RF 29 0.0% 4.5 6 1 1 6.1 22 478
3 Paul Hines PRO CF 25 0.0% 2.8 3 2 4 8.8 12 488
4 Joe Start PRO 1B 37 0.0% 0.8 0 2 1 1.5 12 488
5 George Wright BSN SS 33 0.0% 0.3 0 1 0 3.9 11 489
6 John O'Rourke BSN CF 30 0.0% 3.5 3 6 5.5 9 491
7 Deacon White CIN RF 32 0.0% 0.3 0 1 0 4.5 9 491
8 Tom York PRO LF 29 0.0% 0.5 0 1 1 6.0 9 491
9 John Clapp CIN C 28 0.0% 0.8 1 1 0 6.6 7 493
10 Harry Stovey WOR CF 23 0.0% 4.5 6 9.9 6 494
11 Ezra Sutton BSN SS 30 0.0% 0.2 0 0 1 5.5 6 494
12 Jack Burdock BSN 2B 28 0.0% 1.5 2 0 0 7.1 5 495
13 Jack Manning CIN RF 26 0.0% 1.5 2 0 8.1 5 495
14 Dan Brouthers TRO 1B 22 0.0% 1.3 0 4 10.7 4 496
15 Fred Dunlap CLE 2B 21 0.0% 3.0 4 11.3 4 496
16 Jack Farrell PRO 2B 22 0.0% 2.3 3 1 10.2 4 496
17 Dick Higham TRO C 28 0.0% 0.2 0 1 6.6 4 496
18 Andy Leonard CIN SS 34 0.0% 0.8 1 0 3.5 4 496
19 Orator Shafer CLE RF 28 0.0% 0.0 0 0 0 6.8 4 496
20 Cap Anson CHC 1B 28 0.0% 0.8 1 0 0 7.1 3 497
21 Roger Connor TRO 3B 23 0.0% 2.3 3 10.2 3 497
22 Chick Fulmer BUF 2B 29 0.0% 0.0 0 0 6.4 3 497
23 Sadie Houck BSN/PRO LF 24 0.0% 1.2 1 2 9.4 3 497
24 King Kelly CHC RF 22 0.0% 1.2 1 2 0 10.5 3 497
25 Mike Mansell CIN LF 22 0.0% 1.5 2 1 10.5 3 497
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