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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1879 1878 1877 Yrs Career Needed
76 Bill Hawes BSN RF 25 0.0% 0.0 0 8.6 0 500
77 Thorny Hawkes TRO 2B 26 0.0% 0.0 0 8.0 0 500
78 Sonny Hoffman CLE C 26 0.0% 0.0 0 8.1 0 500
79 Bill Holbert SYR/TRO C 24 0.0% 0.0 0 0 9.4 0 500
80 Joe Hornung BUF LF 22 0.0% 0.0 0 10.8 0 500
81 John Kelly CLE 1B 20 0.0% 0.0 0 11.8 0 500
82 Kick Kelly SYR/TRO C 22 0.0% 0.0 0 10.4 0 500
83 Rudy Kemmler PRO C 19 0.0% 0.0 0 12.3 0 500
84 Steve Libby BUF 1B 25 0.0% 0.0 0 8.7 0 500
85 Jimmy Macullar SYR SS 24 0.0% 0.0 0 9.3 0 500
86 John Magner CIN CF 24 0.0% 0.0 0 9.3 0 500
87 Tom Mansell TRO/SYR LF 24 0.0% 0.0 0 9.3 0 500
88 Jim McCormick CLE SP 22 0.0% 0.0 0 0 10.4 0 500
89 Mike McGeary PRO 2B 28 0.0% 0.0 0 0 6.8 0 500
90 John McGuinness SYR 1B 22 0.0% 0.0 0 10.5 0 500
91 Bill McGunnigle BUF SP 24 0.0% 0.0 0 9.3 0 500
92 Pat McManus TRO SP 19 0.0% 0.0 0 12.2 0 500
93 Bobby Mitchell CLE SP 23 0.0% 0.0 0 0 0 10.0 0 500
94 John Morrill BSN 3B 24 0.0% 0.0 0 0 0 9.4 0 500
95 Jack Neagle CIN SP 21 0.0% 0.0 0 11.1 0 500
96 Candy Nelson TRO SS 30 0.0% 0.0 0 0 5.8 0 500
97 Dan O'Leary PRO RF 22 0.0% 0.0 0 10.4 0 500
98 Charlie Osterhout SYR CF 23 0.0% 0.0 0 10.2 0 500
99 Bill Phillips CLE 1B 22 0.0% 0.0 0 10.7 0 500
100 Blondie Purcell SYR/CIN SP 25 0.0% 0.0 0 8.8 0 500
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