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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1879 1878 1877 Yrs Career Needed
26 Cap Anson CHC 1B 27 0.0% 0.0 0 0 0 7.7 2 498
27 Buttercup Dickerson CIN LF 20 0.0% 1.5 2 0 11.6 2 498
28 Bill Hague PRO 3B 27 0.0% 0.2 0 0 1 7.5 2 498
29 Sadie Houck BSN RF 23 0.0% 1.5 2 10.0 2 498
30 King Kelly CIN 3B 21 0.0% 1.5 2 0 11.1 2 498
31 Ned Williamson CHC 3B 21 0.0% 0.8 1 1 11.0 2 498
32 John Cassidy TRO RF 24 0.0% 0.0 0 0 0 9.3 1 499
33 Ed Cogswell BSN 1B 25 0.0% 0.8 1 8.8 1 499
34 Bill Crowley BUF RF 22 0.0% 0.2 0 1 10.7 1 499
35 Mike Dorgan SYR 1B 25 0.0% 0.8 1 0 8.6 1 499
36 Jack Farrell SYR/PRO 2B 21 0.0% 0.8 1 10.8 1 499
37 Silver Flint CHC C 23 0.0% 0.8 1 0 9.7 1 499
38 Frank Hankinson CHC SP 23 0.0% 0.3 0 1 10.1 1 499
39 Pete Hotaling CIN CF 22 0.0% 0.8 1 10.5 1 499
40 Doc Kennedy CLE C 25 0.0% 0.8 1 8.5 1 499
41 Terry Larkin CHC SP 23 0.0% 0.2 0 0 1 9.9 1 499
42 Mike Mansell SYR LF 21 0.0% 0.8 1 11.1 1 499
43 Bobby Mathews PRO SP 27 0.0% 0.8 1 0 7.4 1 499
44 Harry McCormick SYR SP 23 0.0% 0.8 1 9.8 1 499
45 John Richmond SYR SS 24 0.0% 0.8 1 9.4 1 499
46 Oscar Walker BUF 1B 25 0.0% 0.8 1 8.8 1 499
47 George Adams SYR CF 24 0.0% 0.0 0 9.3 0 500
48 Jack Allen SYR/CLE 3B 23 0.0% 0.0 0 9.8 0 500
49 Tommy Bond BSN SP 23 0.0% 0.0 0 0 0 10.1 0 500
50 George Bradley TRO SP 26 0.0% 0.0 0 0 7.8 0 500
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