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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1879 1878 1877 Yrs Career Needed
26 Bill Phillips CLE 1B 22 0.0% 0.0 0 10.7 0 500
27 Frank Decker SYR C 22 0.0% 0.0 0 10.6 0 500
28 John McGuinness SYR 1B 22 0.0% 0.0 0 10.5 0 500
29 Pud Galvin BUF SP 22 0.0% 0.0 0 10.5 0 500
30 Pete Hotaling CIN CF 22 0.0% 0.8 1 10.5 1 499
31 Jack Rowe BUF C 22 0.0% 0.0 0 10.5 0 500
32 Jim McCormick CLE SP 22 0.0% 0.0 0 0 10.4 0 500
33 Kick Kelly SYR/TRO C 22 0.0% 0.0 0 10.4 0 500
34 Dan O'Leary PRO RF 22 0.0% 0.0 0 10.4 0 500
35 George Strief CLE CF 22 0.0% 0.0 0 10.4 0 500
36 Jake Evans TRO RF 22 0.0% 0.0 0 10.3 0 500
37 Aaron Clapp TRO 1B 23 0.0% 0.0 0 10.2 0 500
38 Charlie Osterhout SYR CF 23 0.0% 0.0 0 10.2 0 500
39 Jim Tyng BSN SP 23 0.0% 0.0 0 10.1 0 500
40 Fred Goldsmith TRO SP 23 0.0% 0.0 0 10.1 0 500
41 Frank Hankinson CHC SP 23 0.0% 0.3 0 1 10.1 1 499
42 Tommy Bond BSN SP 23 0.0% 0.0 0 0 0 10.1 0 500
43 Sadie Houck BSN RF 23 0.0% 1.5 2 10.0 2 498
44 Bobby Mitchell CLE SP 23 0.0% 0.0 0 0 0 10.0 0 500
45 Curry Foley BSN SP 23 0.0% 0.0 0 9.9 0 500
46 Barney Gilligan CLE C 23 0.0% 0.0 0 9.9 0 500
47 Terry Larkin CHC SP 23 0.0% 0.2 0 0 1 9.9 1 499
48 Charlie Reilley TRO C 23 0.0% 0.0 0 9.9 0 500
49 Will Foley CIN RF 23 0.0% 0.0 0 0 0 9.8 0 500
50 Harry McCormick SYR SP 23 0.0% 0.8 1 9.8 1 499
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