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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1879 1878 1877 Yrs Career Needed
26 Davy Force BUF SS 29 0.0% 0.0 0 0 6.0 0 500
27 Bill Harbridge CHC CF 24 0.0% 0.0 0 0 0 9.4 0 500
28 Paul Hines PRO CF 24 0.0% 2.3 2 4 0 9.4 9 491
29 Bobby Mathews PRO SP 27 0.0% 0.8 1 0 7.4 1 499
30 Mike McGeary PRO 2B 28 0.0% 0.0 0 0 6.8 0 500
31 Cal McVey CIN 1B 29 0.0% 0.7 0 2 0 6.1 11 489
32 Bobby Mitchell CLE SP 23 0.0% 0.0 0 0 0 10.0 0 500
33 John Morrill BSN 3B 24 0.0% 0.0 0 0 0 9.4 0 500
34 Jim O'Rourke PRO RF 28 0.0% 0.8 1 1 0 6.7 16 484
35 John Peters CHC SS 29 0.0% 0.8 1 0 0 6.5 3 497
36 Jack Remsen CHC CF 28 0.0% 0.3 0 1 0 6.9 5 495
37 Ezra Sutton BSN SS 29 0.0% 0.3 0 1 0 6.1 6 494
38 Live Oak Taylor TRO LF 28 0.0% 0.0 0 0 7.0 0 500
39 Will White CIN SP 24 0.0% 0.0 0 0 0 9.2 0 500
40 George Wright PRO SS 32 0.0% 0.8 1 0 0 4.5 11 489
41 George Adams SYR CF 24 0.0% 0.0 0 9.3 0 500
42 Jack Allen SYR/CLE 3B 23 0.0% 0.0 0 9.8 0 500
43 Dan Brouthers TRO 1B 21 0.0% 3.0 4 11.3 4 496
44 Mike Burke CIN SS 25 0.0% 0.0 0 8.7 0 500
45 Hick Carpenter SYR 3B 23 0.0% 0.0 0 9.7 0 500
46 Ed Caskin TRO SS 27 0.0% 0.0 0 7.5 0 500
47 Aaron Clapp TRO 1B 23 0.0% 0.0 0 10.2 0 500
48 Ed Cogswell BSN 1B 25 0.0% 0.8 1 8.8 1 499
49 George Creamer SYR 2B 24 0.0% 0.0 0 0 9.3 0 500
50 Abner Dalrymple CHC LF 21 0.0% 0.0 0 0 10.9 0 500
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